So after listening to the experts and pundits and reading some info, there's one glaring aspect of this primary process that stands out to me.
Looking back on 2004, look who emerged as the Democratic candidate. For a while everybody was saying Dean or Edwards, but Kerry won.
The thing of it is, Kerry was the one that everybody felt was electable. He was the old school, lots of experience, plodding war horse kind of candidate. He was slightly liberal, very centrist, in truth practically pro-Iraq war (he wanted a better waged war) and basically another Washington insider with little imagination and even less exciting potential i.e. just the opposite of Obama. In the long run people voted the safest most reliable, in their minds, guy.
Right now, if that same value gets applied to Clinton and Obama, who resembles that pattern the closest.
What's the slight twist in this scenario this year. Its that Obama is exciting as a speaker and as the embodiment of people's hopes. He has charisma, lots of it.
So that is in my opinion the battle. Its exceptional charisma and the holder of great promise, that is Obama. That is versus the old school, old standby, electable, more pragmatic in an old school way, and less charismatic candidate, who does have the female enhancement, Clinton.
Who wins. Its the new wave versus the old school. Right now old school looks good, sorry to say. People resist change even though they talk the talk.
But, remember, there's always a chance for a mitigating factor that upsets the applecart. Its often something out of the blue, either intentionally devised or happenstance. Both Obama and Clinton are fighting against some very powerful interests and those powerful interests have a bag of tricks that is massive and they are not in the least littlest bit afraid to use them.
2 comments:
Now all the MSM media pics. online show Hillary emoting!! Just the opposite of what happened to Dean in 2004 after he lost in IOWA and they focused obsessively on "the Shout!" Hillary wins after "the cry" and thats now the new popular theme. Hillary as soft warm human ( women). It sucks but its predictable. This is a long way from being over however. Obama did well in N.H. 2 weeks ago he was 12 pts. down. His problem was he was Paris Hilton for 2 days and now he's yesterday's phenomenon.
Yes, the cry is the new ameliorating factor.
The media is fundamentally sicker than the politicians.
If the ticket is Clinton - Obama, Clinton gets in and has to deal with a bad economy and war. She gets hammered by the right every step of the way. She works to appease the right and gives away some of the keys to the treasure.
But... Obama as VP has a chance in the future. Somebody already has this all figured out.
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