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Saturday, March 01, 2008

Itty Bitty Slump


Its eye catching, two articles placed in the very same headline space reflecting opposite polarities. I applaud this rare occurrence.

The media does not provide the answer, usually it simply transcribes a message from the elite centers of power for the news outlets. Rarely is there a dissection of the statements, sometimes a contextual background is provided.

On Thursday two AP articles came out side by side that described the economy as going in different directions, one slightly south, the other, very south.

Recall a younger President Bush chiding the American people about his massive tax cuts for the wealthiest calling them, "itty bitty" cuts. He likes those diminutive modifiers for the societal calamity. Not much has changed.

AP: Bush: US is not headed into recession
...Bush said Thursday the country is not recession-bound and, despite expressing concern about slowing economic growth, rejected for now any additional stimulus efforts...
Juxtaposed next to a more sober assessment -

AP: Obama criticizes Bush, McCain on economy
..Obama said Thursday the economy is "on the brink of a recession" and blamed economic policies espoused by President Bush and Republican presidential contender John McCain.

Obama mocked a more optimistic economic picture painted by Bush at a White House news conference just moments earlier...
By the way, its a good political move by Obama to link the names of McCain and Bush in as many ways as possible. This is a strategy that Carter used to beat Ford by calling it the Ford-Nixon administration.

More on the economy -

CNN: Glenn Beck: Don't follow herd on the economy
How you'll know we're here: Americans upside-down on their mortgages and unable to pay their home equity loans begin defaulting on other debt, like credit cards, car loans and student loans. In addition, bond insurance companies lose their perfect credit ratings, forcing already troubled banks to write down another $150 billion.

Odds we get here: High. Roubini says that 8 million households are already upside-down on their mortgages and he thinks we could see that number go to between 16 million and 24 million by the end of 2009. A lot of those people, he believes, will simply walk away from their homes and send their keys back to the bank.
24 million foreclosures - by the end of 2009 - that's a major catastrophe.

President Bush also said he has not heard about $4 per gallon gas. Well he may not know about it, but you will. Incidentally the price of oil at the start of the Iraq war/occupation was around $25. per barrel.

BBC: Oil price hits a new record high
The price of a barrel of oil has hit a record high of $102.59 in New York because of strong demand and the further weakening of the dollar.
Most call it inflation along with recession, some call it stagflation.

Addendum - NYT: Stocks Dive on New Signs of Economic Slowdown
Stocks were sharply lower on Wall Street on Friday after a painful dose of weak economic data reignited fears that a recession may be imminent. A new round of woes in the financial industry also contributed to the sell-off.

...For the first time in at least 50 years, Americans spent more than they earned for the third consecutive month.

The dollar, already at a record low, continued to fall against the euro, and crude oil futures ticked up.

Investors were also spooked by a report from UBS that predicted financial companies will face an additional $350 billion in losses tied to the subprime mortgage collapse.

3 comments:

Glynn Kalara said...

The term is STAGFLATION but god forbid that term should be used by the media these days because it hearkens back to the Pre-Reagan era of Jimmy Joe Carter and that would mean we've essentially traveled the "voodoo economics" trail right back to where it started in 1980 with Pres. Ronald Ray-Gun GOP saint. Welcome back to the 70's!!

Jim Sande said...

I added the term stagflation in the post. Its true, its a mess.

If you get a chance look at Democracy now for Friday the 29th.

She had on some experts on economics who have very intensely linked the cost of the war at 3 trillion to the state of the economy and its present stagflation drift. Unfortunately the main stream media stays away from this.

Bush meanwhile gets on the mike and says everything is fine.

Jim Sande said...

I agree that the next president is going to pick up a lot the blame for Bush and co. There's really two big possibilities if its Obama.

Obama comes in and there's an improvement across the board, the war, economy, energy, global warming, basically a general change for the better - tangible improvement in society.

Or Obama comes in and the mechanism is so messed up, the ship is so sunk that it can't be salvaged. Obama is viewed as horrible especially with our buddies in the MSM and the ring wing noise machine. In this case the democrats get kicked out and in 2012, we get a super regressive conservative. Its the rebirth of the neo-cons.

Either way he will have a rocky start. Then it goes south or not.

On the other hand McCain could still pull it out. In which case its a little like 74 with Ford following Nixon except McCain is more of a hawk and the neo-cons still play a role. He will be less of a right wing x-tian like Bush but ultra hawkish.