Brand new article.
NY Times: Donald Trump Used Legally Dubious Method to Avoid Paying Taxes By DAVID BARSTOW, MIKE McINTIRE, PATRICIA COHEN, SUSANNE CRAIG and RUSS BUETTNER
Monday, October 31, 2016
Juicy Stuff
Just back from a highly informative class I'm taking on the election given by a local university political scientist professor. The class is filled with people in their 60s, 70s, and 80s to give you a sense of the thing. I would also add that most are liberals. Pinpointing one particular lesson, it's that all elections tend to tighten in the final week. It's thought that this tightening will mostly affect the down ballot races in the House. The Democrats chances of a real sweeping type of victory is less.
Regardless, Clinton still holds a favorable lead. It's also thought that the Comey email stuff is not having a significant effect on the race.
Regardless, Clinton still holds a favorable lead. It's also thought that the Comey email stuff is not having a significant effect on the race.
Have An Excellent Monday
work by recent Nobel Prize winner, songwriter, singer extraordinaire Bob Dylan
Autism
Science Daily: Autism spectrum disorder linked to mutations in some mitochondrial DNA - Study of 903 affected children shows inherited, spontaneous mutations increase risk
summary - Children diagnosed with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) have greater numbers of harmful mutations in their mitochondrial DNA than family members, researchers report.
The Market On Monday
Good morning. It is 39 degrees and sunny here in the Upper Hudson Valley, the forecast predicts a sunny day with temperatures in the high 40s this afternoon. It looks like we are in for a warming trend this week. Well, as you know the big email announcement from the FBI's Comey has sent an October surprise factor through the election. The polls appear to be tightening but Clinton clearly still holds the electoral vote advantage. The good news is that this monstrosity is over in 8 to 9 days, barring a tie.
At 9:10 a.m. ET futures are slightly higher and the price of oil per barrel is down. The market is poised to open slightly higher.
Check out GE taking a huge stake in Baker Hughes. The interesting thing is that this is a bet on oil and gas. Hmm, time will tell, but clearly GE's investment analysts think that betting on oil is a good thing.
CNN: GE's big energy deal; Stocks get spooked; European growth by Alanna Petroff
At 9:10 a.m. ET futures are slightly higher and the price of oil per barrel is down. The market is poised to open slightly higher.
Check out GE taking a huge stake in Baker Hughes. The interesting thing is that this is a bet on oil and gas. Hmm, time will tell, but clearly GE's investment analysts think that betting on oil is a good thing.
CNN: GE's big energy deal; Stocks get spooked; European growth by Alanna Petroff
GE is taking a majority stake in Baker Hughes to create a giant firm that will sell equipment and services to the oil and gas industry. The so-called "new Baker Hughes" will have $32 billion in revenue.
Saturday, October 29, 2016
Closed Sundays
The blog is closed on Sundays. See you bright and early Monday morning.
work by Bill Traylor
work by Bill Traylor
Finally
Fascinating article, a must read for the political junkies.
NY Mag: Final Days - Trump’s advisers are working hard to plan their own futures while riding out the roller-coaster end of the campaign. By Gabriel Sherman
NY Mag: Final Days - Trump’s advisers are working hard to plan their own futures while riding out the roller-coaster end of the campaign. By Gabriel Sherman
Clinton Leads
According to this article, Clinton has a lead over Trump in early voting that is similar to the lead Obama had over Romney at this very same time in early voting. Obama won with 332 electoral votes in 2012.
Reuters: Clinton enjoys solid lead in early voting: Reuters/Ipsos poll
Reuters: Clinton enjoys solid lead in early voting: Reuters/Ipsos poll
NMN
Science Daily: Natural compound reduces signs of aging in healthy mice - Safety of NMN being tested in small clinical trial
summary - Much of human health hinges on how well the body manufactures and uses energy. For reasons that remain unclear, cells' ability to produce energy declines with age, prompting scientists to suspect that the steady loss of efficiency in the body's energy supply chain is a key driver of the aging process. Now, scientists have shown that supplementing healthy mice with a natural compound called NMN can compensate for this loss of energy production, reducing typical signs of aging such as gradual weight gain, loss of insulin sensitivity and declines in physical activity.
Friday, October 28, 2016
Weiner Did It!
The irony is getting painful...
NY Times: New Emails in Clinton Case Came From Anthony Weiner’s Computer By ADAM GOLDMAN, ALAN RAPPEPORT, MICHAEL S. SCHMIDT and MATT APUZZO
NY Times: New Emails in Clinton Case Came From Anthony Weiner’s Computer By ADAM GOLDMAN, ALAN RAPPEPORT, MICHAEL S. SCHMIDT and MATT APUZZO
Dinasour Brain Tissue
Science Daily: Fossilized dinosaur brain tissue identified for the first time
summary - Researchers have identified the first known example of fossilized brain tissue in a dinosaur from Sussex. The tissues resemble those seen in modern crocodiles and birds.
Global Warming - Renewables
Climate Central: Renewables Poised for Rapid Growth Worldwide by Bobby Magill
About 500,000 solar panels are installed each day worldwide.
Whoa, Kirk Messes Up Royally
Slate: Illinois Senator Tries to Zing Tammy Duckworth in Debate, Looks Like a Racist Jerk Instead By Elliot Hannon
Duckworth tweeted - "My mom is an immigrant and my dad and his family have served this nation in uniform since the Revolution."
The Market On Friday
Good morning. It is 39 degrees and sunny here in the Upper Hudson Valley, the forecast predicts a mostly cloudy day with temperatures in the mid 40s this afternoon. We had some snow on Thursday and at the moment there is a still a patina of it lingering on the ground. That will go away soon and hopefully that's the last snow we see until the end of December which is when we generally experience the first snowfall of Winter. We are down to one and a half weeks to go till election day. The polls are slightly tightening but Clinton holds the advantage in so many ways. It will be such a tremendous relief to not hear Trump's voice all the time on the news. It's been a torturous year and a half, and screw the GOP left and right for foisting this monstrosity on the US. GOP may you lose endless national elections and become embroiled with the Breitbart crowd for decades to come.
At 9:15 a.m. ET, futures are slightly higher and the price of oil per barrel is down. The market is poised to open flat to slightly higher.
Two things really caught my attention this morning. First, Amazon profit is down. How on Earth can that be as Amazon is the king of the hill. I have personally become dependent on Amazon especially with buying used books at low prices. The second thing is the first report of the third quarter GDP, 2.9%. Now that is remarkable. That's rather high and flies right in the face of the orange demon's nonsense about the economy. So look for the Democrats to 'weaponize' this number.
Reuters: Wall Street set to open flat as Amazon overshadows GDP data
At 9:15 a.m. ET, futures are slightly higher and the price of oil per barrel is down. The market is poised to open flat to slightly higher.
Two things really caught my attention this morning. First, Amazon profit is down. How on Earth can that be as Amazon is the king of the hill. I have personally become dependent on Amazon especially with buying used books at low prices. The second thing is the first report of the third quarter GDP, 2.9%. Now that is remarkable. That's rather high and flies right in the face of the orange demon's nonsense about the economy. So look for the Democrats to 'weaponize' this number.
Reuters: Wall Street set to open flat as Amazon overshadows GDP data
Gross domestic product increased at a 2.9 percent annual rate in the third quarter, helped by a surge in exports, the first estimate by the U.S. Commerce Department revealed.
Thursday, October 27, 2016
Cris-is Christie
Politico: Chris Christie's epic collapse By Matt Friedman
“I think Chris Christie has destroyed the Republican Party in New Jersey for a generation,” said Seton Hall political science professor Matt Hale...
President A-Hole
Politico: Trump: 'We should just cancel the election and just give it to Trump' By Nolan D. McCaskil
“And just thinking to myself right now, we should just cancel the election and just give it to Trump, right? What are we even having it for? What are we having it for?”
Fear Of Microphones
He has a severe case of microphobia and technophobia.
Politico: Trump blames 'the microphones' for catching his 2005 talk about sexual assault By Nolan D. McCaskill
Politico: Trump blames 'the microphones' for catching his 2005 talk about sexual assault By Nolan D. McCaskill
Help For Amputees
Science Daily: Restoring the sense of touch in amputees using natural signals of nervous system
summary - Scientists have found a way to produce realistic sensations of touch in two human amputees by directly stimulating the nervous system.
Wild Animals
Guardian UK: World on track to lose two-thirds of wild animals by 2020, major report warns - Living Planet Index shows vertebrate populations are set to decline by 67% on 1970 levels unless urgent action is taken to reduce humanity’s impact
The collapse of wildlife is, with climate change, the most striking sign of the Anthropocene, a proposed new geological era in which humans dominate the planet. “We are no longer a small world on a big planet. We are now a big world on a small planet, where we have reached a saturation point,” said Prof Johan Rockström, executive director of the Stockholm Resilience Centre, in a foreword for the report.
Global Warming - Tibet
Climate Central: Tibet Just Had Another Massive Ice Avalanche by Brian Kahn
“Two of them (gigantic glacier avalanche) within close geographical and temporal vicinity is, to our best knowledge, unprecedented.”
The Market On Thursday
Good morning. It is 34 degrees and cloudy here in the Upper Hudson Valley, the forecast predicts a cloudy day with temperatures in the high 30s this afternoon. Some reports warned that we might even get some snow in the area as well. Yup, Summer is over. Well 12 days to go and according to Five Thirty Eight as I write this, Clinton has an 84.6% chance of winning. That makes people uncomfortable because we want to see a 100% chance of Clinton winning.
At 9:20 a.m. ET futures are moderately higher and the price of oil per barrel is up. The market is poised to open moderately higher.
It's still very much a nuts and bolts period in the market with investors reacting to third quarter corporate reports. Apple was down and low and behold Britain, the country, is up. Tesla is showing profit and that could be a good sign, hail the electric car.
CNN: Apple Mac upgrade; Tesla stock revs up; ZTO IPO is here by Alanna Petroff
At 9:20 a.m. ET futures are moderately higher and the price of oil per barrel is up. The market is poised to open moderately higher.
It's still very much a nuts and bolts period in the market with investors reacting to third quarter corporate reports. Apple was down and low and behold Britain, the country, is up. Tesla is showing profit and that could be a good sign, hail the electric car.
CNN: Apple Mac upgrade; Tesla stock revs up; ZTO IPO is here by Alanna Petroff
The U.K. economy grew much faster than expected in the July to September period, according to a preliminary estimate from the Office for National Statistics.
This is the period that directly followed the Brexit referendum, so expectations for growth were low.
Wednesday, October 26, 2016
Glacier Melting In West Antarctica
Science Daily: Accelerated glacier melting in West Antarctica documented - Study findings will help improve predictions about global sea level rise
summary - Two new studies have found the fastest ongoing rates of glacier retreat ever observed in West Antarctica and offer an unprecedented look at ice melting on the floating undersides of glaciers. The results highlight how the interaction between ocean conditions and the bedrock beneath a glacier can influence the frozen mass, helping scientists better predict future Antarctica ice loss and global sea level rise.
The Market On Wednesday
Good morning. it is 37 degrees and sunny here in the Upper Hudson Valley, the forecast predicts a sunny day with temperatures in the high 40s this afternoon. Say au revoir to the warm days, alas. Winter is good though, it's just that the adjustment to it is sometimes challenging and often done begrudgingly. Thirteen days to go before you know what. The polls appear to be tightening a bit, the media certainly seems to be enjoying playing this monstrosity of an election campaign as a close horse race. Not sure that's true, but hey, whatever it takes to build revenue. Meanwhile Trump continues to act like the petulant 'please stay way from me' being that he most unfortunately is. Win or lose, Trump ultimately loses mainly because he alone has to be Trump and that is a difficult fate. Would you want to be Trump?
At 9:10 a.m. ET futures are moderately lower and the price of oil per barrel is down. The market is poised too open moderately lower.
The market is weak this morning. Apple shares are dropping simply because the company only earned a mere $216 Billion, yeah that's really sad...
CNN: Apple underwhelms; Chipotle stock sinks; Atwitter over Twitter by Alanna Petroff
At 9:10 a.m. ET futures are moderately lower and the price of oil per barrel is down. The market is poised too open moderately lower.
The market is weak this morning. Apple shares are dropping simply because the company only earned a mere $216 Billion, yeah that's really sad...
CNN: Apple underwhelms; Chipotle stock sinks; Atwitter over Twitter by Alanna Petroff
The report shows people aren't buying as many iPhones as they did last year. Many analysts have raised concerns that the global smartphone market has become saturated.
This comes as crude oil futures are down by about 1.5%, trading just below $50.
Tuesday, October 25, 2016
Not One Size Fits All
Science Daily: The heterogeneous nature of depression
summary - Depression is generally considered to be a specific and consistent disorder characterized by a fixed set of symptoms and often treated with a combination of psychotherapy and medication. However, the standard rating scales used by healthcare professionals and researchers to diagnose this disease often differ in the symptoms they list, perhaps explaining why a one-size-fits-all treatment has to date been so ineffective, new research suggests.
Lying
Science Daily: How lying takes our brains down a 'slippery slope' - Telling small lies desensitizes our brains to the associated negative emotions and may encourage us to tell bigger lies in future
summary - Telling small lies desensitizes our brains to the associated negative emotions and may encourage us to tell bigger lies in future, reveals new research.
Clinton Takes Aim At Texas
Seems rather unlikely that Clinton wins Texas however the interesting point is that a Trump win in Texas looks to be a lot weaker than previous GOP wins in the previously solid red state. In time, changing demographics will in fact turn Texas blue. Don't hold your breath though.
Guardian UK: Texas voter turnout up as millions cast early ballots – election live
Guardian UK: Texas voter turnout up as millions cast early ballots – election live
The Market On Tuesday
Good morning. It is 39 degrees and sunny here in the Upper Hudson Valley, the forecast predicts a sunny day with temperatures only in the high 40s this afternoon. The temperatures are dropping day by day, we are into the crispy part of the Fall. Well, two weeks to go before this very ugly and miserable presidential campaign comes to an equally miserable close. As we know Mr. Trump has taken it upon himself to add a dimension to the election cycle that America has never seen before, and it's not in the least bit pretty or appealing. A quick scan of the polls this morning shows that Clinton is maintaining her lead over Trump and not a lot has shifted in the polls over the last few days. The NY Times for example is still showing her with a 97% chance of winning, this is the number we've seen at The NY Times for the better part of the last week. I literally pray that number holds and that the electorate favors Clinton and strongly rejects Trump although I have suspected that the polls might tighten once again. It is also possible that her lead could increase, we shall indeed see.
At 8:50 a.m. ET futures are ever so slightly higher and the price of oil per barrel is up. The market is poised to open slightly higher.
Busy times on Wall Street as a deluge of third quarter corporate reports come through the pipeline. Notice that the value of the pound is down about 20% since the Brexit vote, and recall that this is what Trump wants for the USA. The German economy is cranking away which directly reflects positively on the E.U. in general. At present, it looks like clear sailing.
CNN: Earnings deluge; Apple of my eye; Twitter in focus by Alanna Petroff
At 8:50 a.m. ET futures are ever so slightly higher and the price of oil per barrel is up. The market is poised to open slightly higher.
Busy times on Wall Street as a deluge of third quarter corporate reports come through the pipeline. Notice that the value of the pound is down about 20% since the Brexit vote, and recall that this is what Trump wants for the USA. The German economy is cranking away which directly reflects positively on the E.U. in general. At present, it looks like clear sailing.
CNN: Earnings deluge; Apple of my eye; Twitter in focus by Alanna Petroff
The S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index for August is due at 9 a.m. ET, giving insight into the state of the U.S. real estate market.
The U.S. Conference Board is releasing its October consumer confidence report at 10 a.m.
Monday, October 24, 2016
Terrifying
Read this.
The Washington Post: The ugly history of ‘Lügenpresse,’ a Nazi slur shouted at a Trump rally By Rick Noack
The Washington Post: The ugly history of ‘Lügenpresse,’ a Nazi slur shouted at a Trump rally By Rick Noack
CO2
Science Daily: Globally Averaged CO2 Levels Reach 400 parts per million in 2015
summary - Globally averaged concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere reached the symbolic and significant milestone of 400 parts per million for the first time in 2015 and surged again to new records in 2016 on the back of the very powerful El Niño event, according to the World Meteorological Organization's annual Greenhouse Gas Bulletin.
It's Over
Politico: Clinton casts Trump aside - With two weeks to go, the Democrat will focus on the Senate and hope Trump keeps himself in the headlines. By Annie Karni
In mock debate sessions, Clinton’s Trump stand-in, longtime aide Philippe Reines, yelled “wrong” into the microphone and interrupted his boss so she could practice delivering her lines unperturbed.
The Market On Monday
Good morning. It is 46 degrees, mostly cloudy with a few rays of sunshine here in the Upper Hudson Valley, the forecast predicts a cloudy day with temperatures in the low 50s this afternoon. I hope you had an excellent weekend, mine was interesting to be sure. The bottom has fallen out of the Trump campaign but good. The release of the ABC News poll on Saturday giving Clinton a 12 point advantage was the icing on the cake as it were. Never put too much confidence in one single poll is the the standard, but when added to other polls especially state polls tracking the electoral votes, Clinton has a brilliant advantage.
At 9:15 a.m. ET futures are moderately higher and the price of oil per barrel is down. The market is poised to open moderately higher.
This ATT&T buy of Time Warner is the talk of the town. How will the merger affect our one note media world. Regardless, we are seeing the birth of a major media monopoly, a behemoth.
CNN: AT&T's mega deal; Earnings galore; Stocks zoom higher by Alanna Petroff
At 9:15 a.m. ET futures are moderately higher and the price of oil per barrel is down. The market is poised to open moderately higher.
This ATT&T buy of Time Warner is the talk of the town. How will the merger affect our one note media world. Regardless, we are seeing the birth of a major media monopoly, a behemoth.
CNN: AT&T's mega deal; Earnings galore; Stocks zoom higher by Alanna Petroff
AT&T will pay $107.50 a share to buy Time Warner, which would help it expand beyond wireless and Internet service into programming. Time Warner is the parent of CNN, TNT, HBO, the Warner Bros. studio, and other channels and websites.
Saturday, October 22, 2016
Closed Sundays
The blog is closed on Sundays. See you bright and early Monday morning.
work by Bill Traylor
work by Bill Traylor
Oil Output Cap
We've been reading about this cap deal for a while. Since it was first announced, oil has risen in price to the present $50 per barrel plus or minus area.
Reuters: Venezuela's Maduro says oil producers close to output cap deal
Reuters: Venezuela's Maduro says oil producers close to output cap deal
"...This will pave the way for a new era of stability and investments, stable output and new oil price formula..."
The Fourth Former RNC Chair Unendorses Trump
It's becoming like a Christmas song - 11 maidens he groped, 4 former RNC's, and a partridge in a pear tree...
Salon: Michael Steele says Donald Trump’s campaign “captured that racist underbelly … of American life” - Steele becomes the fourth former RNC chair to unendorse Trump, who "gave voice to" America's "racist underbelly" by Brendan Gauthier
Salon: Michael Steele says Donald Trump’s campaign “captured that racist underbelly … of American life” - Steele becomes the fourth former RNC chair to unendorse Trump, who "gave voice to" America's "racist underbelly" by Brendan Gauthier
Oldest Known Circumstellar Disk
Science Daily: Oldest known planet-forming disk discovered
summary - A group of citizen scientists and professional astronomers joined forces to discover an unusual hunting ground for exoplanets. They found a star surrounded by the oldest known circumstellar disk -- a primordial ring of gas and dust that orbits around a young star and from which planets can form as the material collides and aggregates.
America Flips Trump The Bird
Guardian UK: Bad hombre: restaurants make a meal of Donald Trump's Spanish sideswipe - The Republican candidate’s comment about ‘bad hombres’ from Mexico in the final debate inspired eateries and bars to create signature dishes and cocktails
Meanwhile in Nashville, Rosepepper Cantina created two new cocktails. The Bad Hombre will most likely put you to sleep as it is made with “very, very strong, believe me, mezcal”, while the Nasty Woman is made with very strong tequila.
Global Warming - Winter Drought
Climate Central: Winter Drought Forecast for Much of U.S. by Andrea Thompson
With the renewed possibility of a La Niña emerging in the next couple months, little improvement is expected in most areas...
Friday, October 21, 2016
Trump In 2008 - Clinton Was ‘ Great Senator ’ People Who Hate Bill Just ‘ Jealous As Hell ’
Listen to Trump praise Hillary and Bill Clinton in 2008. Your jaw will drop. Please share this video, post it on websites, newspaper comment sections, etc.
Spew
All you never wanted to know about the love child spawn of Glenn Beck and a rabid black bear.
My Statesmen: Austin’s Alex Jones: The voice in Donald Trump’s head By Jonathan Tilove
My Statesmen: Austin’s Alex Jones: The voice in Donald Trump’s head By Jonathan Tilove
The Mighty Trump Falls
This is a very telling article - highly recommended.
Washington Post: Donald Trump is in a funk: Bitter, hoarse and pondering, ‘If I lose. . .’
Washington Post: Donald Trump is in a funk: Bitter, hoarse and pondering, ‘If I lose. . .’
Trump’s supporters have concocted elaborate explanations for why he might lose, often involving massive voter fraud conducted by Democrats who will bus undocumented immigrants and people posing as people who have died to battleground states to vote illegally. There are also fears that election results in some states will be tampered with, and Trump’s backers have cheered his promise to challenge the election results if he doesn’t win.
Down Then Up
I experienced parts of the internet down this morning.
Slate: This Is Probably Why a Whole Lot of the Internet Went Down This Morning by Jacob Brogan
Slate: This Is Probably Why a Whole Lot of the Internet Went Down This Morning by Jacob Brogan
Poll Update
As of 12:45 p.m. ET on October 21st -
The New York Times has Clinton with a 93% chance of winning the election.
Five Thirty Eight has Clinton with an 87% chance of winning the election.
The Huffington Post has Clinton with a 96% chance of winning the election.
Daily Kos has Clinton with a 95% chance of winning the election.
Predict Wise has Clinton with a 91% chance of winning the election.
The Princeton Election Consortium has Clinton with a 99% chance of winning the election.
Hillary Clinton continues to hold her strong lead and in most of these polls her lead has increased over the past few days. source
The New York Times has Clinton with a 93% chance of winning the election.
Five Thirty Eight has Clinton with an 87% chance of winning the election.
The Huffington Post has Clinton with a 96% chance of winning the election.
Daily Kos has Clinton with a 95% chance of winning the election.
Predict Wise has Clinton with a 91% chance of winning the election.
The Princeton Election Consortium has Clinton with a 99% chance of winning the election.
Hillary Clinton continues to hold her strong lead and in most of these polls her lead has increased over the past few days. source
Savannasaurus Elliottorum
Science Daily: New Cretaceous dinosaur from Queensland - Australian researchers shed light on global sauropod evolution
summary - Researchers have announced the naming of Savannasaurus elliottorum, a new genus and species of dinosaur from western Queensland, Australia. The bones come from the Winton Formation, a geological deposit approximately 95 million years old. Savannasaurus was a medium-sized titanosaur, approximately half the length of a basketball court, with a long neck and a relatively short tail.A Titanosaur
Little Marco
MSNBC: After taking some shots from Rubio, Obama returns the favor by Steve Benen
“I’m even more confused by Republican politicians who still support Donald Trump,” Obama said. “Marco Rubio is one of those people. How does that work? How can you call him a con artist and dangerous and object to all the controversial things he says and then say, ‘But I’m still gonna vote for him?’ C’mon, man!”
“C’mon, man,” he repeated.
“You know what that is? It is the height of cynicism. That’s the sign of somebody who will say anything, do anything, pretend to be anybody, just to get elected. And you know what? If you’re willing to be anybody just to be somebody, then you don’t have the leadership that Florida needs in the U.S. Senate…. That’s why you’ve got to vote for Patrick Murphy. That’s why you’ve got to vote for Hillary Clinton.”
The Market On Friday
Good morning. It is 66 degrees and sunny here in the Upper Hudson Valley, the forecast predicts showers at some point and temperatures in the low 70s this afternoon. Screw Trump.
At 9:20 a.m. ET futures are significantly lower and the price of oil per barrel is slightly down. The market is poised to open lower.
It's Friday, looks like the market opens with a stinker, so just plan for a good weekend and let it go. The good news is that the polls are holding and with 18 days left, maybe we don't have to at least deal with this clown as a presidential candidate anymore.
Reuters: Dollar hits seven-month high, global stocks set for weekly rise
At 9:20 a.m. ET futures are significantly lower and the price of oil per barrel is slightly down. The market is poised to open lower.
It's Friday, looks like the market opens with a stinker, so just plan for a good weekend and let it go. The good news is that the polls are holding and with 18 days left, maybe we don't have to at least deal with this clown as a presidential candidate anymore.
Reuters: Dollar hits seven-month high, global stocks set for weekly rise
"This week held several positives for markets. The Q3 earnings season so far managed to surprise rather strong market expectations and solidified anticipations that the earnings recession has ended after four quarters," said Susan Joho, economist at Julius Baer.
"As good as these developments may look at first sight, none of them are robust enough to be sustained in the next months. The reality looks more sober: corporate guidance is weak."
Thursday, October 20, 2016
Slam
NBC News: GOP Slams Trump: Not Accepting Election Results Would Be 'Beyond the Pale' by Elizabeth Chuck
"I don't know who's going to win the presidential election. I do know that in every previous election, the loser congratulates the winner and calls them, 'my president.' That's not just the Republican way or the Democratic way. It's the American way," McCain added.
Destroyed
Ezra Klein has put together an exceptionally good video on the three debates, with insightful analysis.
Vox: Hillary Clinton’s 3 debate performances left the Trump campaign in ruins - Donald Trump didn't just destroy himself. Hillary Clinton destroyed him.Updated by Ezra Klein
Vox: Hillary Clinton’s 3 debate performances left the Trump campaign in ruins - Donald Trump didn't just destroy himself. Hillary Clinton destroyed him.Updated by Ezra Klein
Read It And Weep
Vox: Read this Trump debate answer and tell me if you can make sense of it. by Zack Beauchamp
Well, Aleppo is a disaster. It's a humanitarian nightmare. But it has fallen from any standpoint. I mean, what do you need, a signed document? Take a look at Aleppo. It is so sad when you see what's happened. And a lot of this is because of Hillary Clinton. Because what has happened is by fighting Assad, who turned out to be a lot tougher than she thought, and now she is going to say, “Oh, he loves Assad.” He's just much tougher and much smarter than her and Obama. And everyone thought he was gone two years ago, three years ago. He aligned with Russia. He now also aligned with Iran, who we made very powerful. We gave them $150 billion back. We give them $1.7 billion in cash. I mean cash, bundles of cash as big as this stage. We gave them $1.7 billion.
Now they have aligned, he has aligned with Russia and with Iran. They don't want ISIS. But they have other things because we're backing, we're backing rebels. We don't know who the rebels are. We're giving them lots of money, lots of everything. We don't know who the rebels are. And when and if, and it's not going to happen because you have Russia and you have Iran now. But if they ever did overthrow Assad, you might end up as bad as Assad is, and he is a bad guy.
But you may very well end up with worse than Assad. If she did nothing, we'd be in much better shape. And this is what has caused the great migration where she has taken in tens of thousands of Syrian refugees who probably in many cases, not probably, who are definitely in many cases ISIS-aligned. And we now have them in our country and wait until you see this is going to be the great Trojan horse.
And wait until you see what happens in the coming years. Lots of luck, Hillary. Thanks a lot for doing a great job.
Pluto
Science Daily: Possible clouds on Pluto, next target is reddish
summary - Stern said that Pluto's complex, layered atmosphere is hazy and appears to be mostly free of clouds, but the team has spied a handful of potential clouds in images taken with New Horizons' cameras. "If there are clouds, it would mean the weather on Pluto is even more complex than we imagined," Stern said.
Suspense My A
The Market On Thursday
Good morning. It is 50 degrees and cloudy here in the Upper Hudson Valley, the forecast predicts a cloudy day with temperatures in the 60s this afternoon. Mercifully, the debates are over. The merciful quality is directly linked to the abominable miserable petulant careless thoughtless vicious quality that Trump has brought to this presidential election cycle. We only have to endure 19 more days of this nonsense and then, also mercifully, Trump gets the hook. My prediction - he loses in a landslide.
At 9:15 a.m. ET futures are modestly lower and the price of oil per barrel is down. The market is poised to open lower.
The nuts and bolts of the third quarter reports along with the comments of the presidential candidates are being parsed by the investment world. Notice that Tesla is presenting self driving cars for next year. A brave new world is upon us.
CNN: Debate reactions; ECB expectations; Tesla talk by Alanna Petroff
At 9:15 a.m. ET futures are modestly lower and the price of oil per barrel is down. The market is poised to open lower.
The nuts and bolts of the third quarter reports along with the comments of the presidential candidates are being parsed by the investment world. Notice that Tesla is presenting self driving cars for next year. A brave new world is upon us.
CNN: Debate reactions; ECB expectations; Tesla talk by Alanna Petroff
Tesla on Wednesday unveiled new technology that will make its cars fully self-driving. Tesla expects that by the end of 2017, these cars should be able to drive from New York City to Los Angeles without the driver having to do anything.
Despondent
Apparently Republicans thought throwing their cards in with a petulant, ill informed, jackass was a good idea. Now, it's all about buyer's remorse.
Politico: Republicans despondent that Trump threw away final debate - ‘Down-ticket Republicans lost,' one GOP pollster said. 'They needed some help and got absolutely none.' By Alex Isenstadt and Katie Glueck
Politico: Republicans despondent that Trump threw away final debate - ‘Down-ticket Republicans lost,' one GOP pollster said. 'They needed some help and got absolutely none.' By Alex Isenstadt and Katie Glueck
Keep Digging Bright Boy
CNN: Donald Trump digs a deeper hole
The swirling controversies have only emboldened Trump, who has taken to furiously lashing out in all directions: at his accusers, the media, GOP leadership and, most recently, the political system. He is now outlandishly warning -- with no evidence -- that the election is "rigged" in favor of Clinton.
Delusional
Newsweek: Donald Trump is Delusional—And the Third Presidential Debate Proves It By Matthew Cooper
He referred to the START arms control treaty with Russia as a “start up.” When he spoke of the Iraqi assault on Mosul, he initially said ISIS had left because the U.S. telegraphed the assault. Then he said the battle would be much tougher than anticipated. (Both can’t be true). Trump denied the assessment of American intelligence agencies that Russia is behind the hacks of the Democratic National Committee and Clinton campaign chair, John Podesta.
Wednesday, October 19, 2016
The Results
Won't accept the election results? I'm reminded of the vindictive, petulant, fearful, confused husband unwilling to put the final signature on the divorce papers and allow the world to happily move on.
Trouble In Dodge
How delightfully funny is this!
The Atlantic: Bad Blood? Donald Trump and Roger Ailes Reportedly No Longer Speak - The G.O.P. nominee and former cable news king, longtime friends, have reportedly had a falling out in the midst of the campaign. by Emily Jane Fox
The Atlantic: Bad Blood? Donald Trump and Roger Ailes Reportedly No Longer Speak - The G.O.P. nominee and former cable news king, longtime friends, have reportedly had a falling out in the midst of the campaign. by Emily Jane Fox
"Ailes’s camp said Ailes learned that Trump couldn’t focus—surprise, surprise—and that advising him was a waste of time,” Sherman said.
What Happens If
Teaching History: Presidential Death During The Election Cycle
No presidential candidate of a major party has ever died or withdrawn before a presidential election and no President-elect has ever died or withdrawn after winning the general election, but before taking office.
However, one vice-presidential candidate died after he was nominated, but before the general election, and another dropped off his party's ticket.
Migraines, Nitrates
Science Daily: Migraine sufferers have more nitrate-reducing microbes in their mouths
summary - The mouths of migraine sufferers harbor significantly more microbes with the ability to modify nitrates than people who do not get migraine headaches, new research has found.
Debate Three
Guardian UK: Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton face fear and loathing at third debate - Rival candidates for the presidency, both beset by controversy, will square off in Las Vegas – their final clash before election day
Hillary Clinton has a 7.5 point lead over Donald Trump in the run up to the third Presidential debate.
Global Warming - Record Heat
Climate Central: Hottest Months on Record Have Something in Common by Brian Kahn
Oh, and the planet hasn’t had a cooler-than-normal month — nevermind record-setting cool — in 381 months (nearly 32 years).
Survival
The article points to Clinton surviving Trump, yeah, I don't think so. It's really the opposite, Clinton is taking the orange goon apart piece by piece. It's unlikely that Trump will survive as he is soon to become the biggest loser on the globe.
Politico: Can Clinton keep her head down? With 20 days to go and a win in sight, the Democrat just needs to survive her final fight with Trump. By Annie Karni
Politico: Can Clinton keep her head down? With 20 days to go and a win in sight, the Democrat just needs to survive her final fight with Trump. By Annie Karni
The Market On Wednesday
Good morning. It is 66 degrees and it is sunny here in the Upper Hudson Valley, the forecast predicts a sunny day with temperatures in the 70s this afternoon. Big day, as we know, 'debate' three is tonight and we expect it to be an ugly cringe-worthy event. As long as Trump is in the picture, expect it to be ugly. The man has the decorum of a poorly potty trained gorilla. Note that as of yesterday global betting parlor, Paddy Power, started to pay out on those who bet that Clinton would win the election. If the bookies are already paying out on the election, you know it's in the bag for Hillary Clinton. At this point it will cost you $11 to get a $2 payout by betting on a Clinton win. End of story.
At 9:10 a.m. ET futures are moderately higher and the price of oil per barrel is up. The market is poised to open moderately higher.
It's another nuts and bolts type of day in the market. Investors are parsing third quarter corporate results and so far it's all been stable. The market is percolating.
CNN: China on target; Stocks steady; Tesla's time to shine by Alanna Petroff
At 9:10 a.m. ET futures are moderately higher and the price of oil per barrel is up. The market is poised to open moderately higher.
It's another nuts and bolts type of day in the market. Investors are parsing third quarter corporate results and so far it's all been stable. The market is percolating.
CNN: China on target; Stocks steady; Tesla's time to shine by Alanna Petroff
Official data released Wednesday shows China's economy grew 6.7% in the third quarter.
Tuesday, October 18, 2016
Paddy Payout
CBC News: Irish bookies already paying out $1M to people who bet Hillary Clinton would win - Bet-taker also paid out early on Barack Obama win in 2012
One of the world's biggest bookies is so sure that Hillary Clinton will win next month's U.S. presidential contest that it has already started paying bettors.
Paddy Power said Tuesday it will begin to pay out more than $1 million US to people with bets on its books in favour of Clinton, whose odds of winning have risen so high that a bettor would have to put up $11 just to win $2.
One More Time
One last fun read of a special portion of a Trump speech from earlier in the year.
"Look, having nuclear—my uncle was a great professor and scientist and engineer, Dr. John Trump at MIT; good genes, very good genes, OK, very smart, the Wharton School of Finance, very good, very smart — you know, if you're a conservative Republican, if I were a liberal, if, like, OK, if I ran as a liberal Democrat, they would say I'm one of the smartest people anywhere in the world—it's true!—but when you're a conservative Republican they try—oh, do they do a number—that's why I always start off: Went to Wharton, was a good student, went there, went there, did this, built a fortune—you know I have to give my like credentials all the time, because we're a little disadvantaged—but you look at the nuclear deal, the thing that really bothers me—it would have been so easy, and it's not as important as these lives are (nuclear is powerful; my uncle explained that to me many, many years ago, the power and that was 35 years ago; he would explain the power of what's going to happen and he was right—who would have thought?), but when you look at what's going on with the four prisoners—now it used to be three, now it's four—but when it was three and even now, I would have said it's all in the messenger; fellas, and it is fellas because, you know, they don't, they haven't figured that the women are smarter right now than the men, so, you know, it's gonna take them about another 150 years—but the Persians are great negotiators, the Iranians are great negotiators, so, and they, they just killed, they just killed us."
'Michael Moore In TrumpLand'
This looks like fun, premiers tonight in NYC.
Rolling Stone: Michael Moore Preps Surprise Donald Trump Film - 'Michael Moore in TrumpLand' reportedly based on one-man show filmmaker performed in Ohio earlier this month
Rolling Stone: Michael Moore Preps Surprise Donald Trump Film - 'Michael Moore in TrumpLand' reportedly based on one-man show filmmaker performed in Ohio earlier this month
More Trump Effect
Slate: The Triggered Electorate - Donald Trump has a unique and sickening ability to resurface women’s memories of abuse and trauma. By Michelle Goldberg
Hardest of all for Anderson has been seeing men she knows and trusts defend Trump. “That’s the part that makes me cry,” she says, her voice breaking over the phone. “Because even the men you think are safe, aren’t safe.”
Rating Trump
Turns out Trump is a very ugly, hideous, and repulsive 1 on a scale of 1 to 10 as a political candidate.
Western U.S. Forest Fires And Climate Change
Science Daily: Climate change has doubled Western U.S. forest fires
summary - More aridity is sending thousands of square miles up in flames, report investigators. According to the study, since 1984 heightened temperatures and resulting aridity have caused fires to spread across an additional 16,000 square miles than they otherwise would have -- an area larger than the states of Massachusetts and Connecticut combined. The authors warn that further warming will increase fire exponentially in coming decades.
NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking Poll - Clinton 46%, Trump 40%
A tracking poll is a single day poll not one that spans several days.
NBC News: Poll: Clinton Maintains Solid National Lead by Hannah Hartig, John Lapinski and Stephanie Psyllos
NBC News: Poll: Clinton Maintains Solid National Lead by Hannah Hartig, John Lapinski and Stephanie Psyllos
The Market On Tuesday
Good morning. It is 63 degrees and sunny here in the Upper Hudson Valley, the forecast predicts a sunny day with temperatures in the low 80s this afternoon. Okay just to repeat, the low 80s, you read that correctly. So Mr. Cheetoh Brexit is now calling it a rigged election. In my opinion this is how that works - every single election polling station in every American county is part of a wide county conspiracy, in collaboration with a vast state wide conspiracy, in collaboration with all the states working in unison, virtually thousands and thousands of actors, all collaborating to 'rig the election' (except the few states that will go Red and vote Trump).
At 9:10 a.m. ET futures are significantly higher and the price of oil per barrel is up. The market is poised to open significantly higher.
Not much to say here, third quarter results are looking strong this morning. Notice what is happening in England as the pound continues to lose value, prices go higher, and inflation sets in all the result of a Trump admired Brexit.
CNN: Global markets rally; Netflix stock surges; Inflation data dump by Alanna Petroff
At 9:10 a.m. ET futures are significantly higher and the price of oil per barrel is up. The market is poised to open significantly higher.
Not much to say here, third quarter results are looking strong this morning. Notice what is happening in England as the pound continues to lose value, prices go higher, and inflation sets in all the result of a Trump admired Brexit.
CNN: Global markets rally; Netflix stock surges; Inflation data dump by Alanna Petroff
Netflix shares are surging by about 20% in extended trading after the company reported earnings that blew past Wall Street expectations.
This follows on the heels of a U.K. inflation report out Tuesday showing prices are shooting higher as the British pound has plummeted.
'Idiot'
Salon: Donald Trump’s North Carolina death spiral: Even white suburbanites flee the “idiot” - Only strong anti-Clinton sentiment is keeping Trump afloat in North Carolina's heavily Republican suburbs by Simon Maloy
“I just think Trump — he doesn’t know what he’s doing, and he’s an idiot,” said Eric Schafer, a 26-year-old nonprofit employee who voted Republican in the last two presidential elections and supported John Kasich in the Republican primaries. “I feel like if he’s elected, we’re going to have some sort of war.”
Monday, October 17, 2016
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