Friday, September 30, 2016
My Latest
My Latest NY Times comment -
In very general terms, Trump entered the race last year and was highly regarded as a joke candidate. Recall Jon Stewart or any number of comedians salivating at the idea of a Trump campaign knowing full well that the man was the source material for endless jokes and laughter.
Over time the media attention and in particular in my mind, the violence at his rallies seemed to change the perception of Trump. He went from joke to feared demagogue and worse, someone who would unleash ‘the basket of deplorables’ on America. He would give demagogic approval to the deplorables to force more violence, more hate, more irrationality, more divisiveness, and be free of thoughtful careful policy, fine character, basic reasonable decorum, and even the fundamental human emotions of empathy and compassion.
Right now I think there’s another shift occurring. He is indeed the laughingstock, he is the joke source. It's back. The media is less enthralled with his potential validity as a candidate. We’ve gotten more familiar with his supporters and understanding little by little what they seek and why, and how they learned these things. That divide remains, Trump added fuel to it and this is his miserable legacy. The debate was the exclamation point though. Trump is utterly unprepared, utterly ill informed, utterly ill tempered, he’s seeks revenge over embarrassing sideshow escapades and pours endless effort into them. It's pathetic.
NY Times: No Debate That Hillary Clinton’s Polling Numbers Are Improving by Nate Cohn
In very general terms, Trump entered the race last year and was highly regarded as a joke candidate. Recall Jon Stewart or any number of comedians salivating at the idea of a Trump campaign knowing full well that the man was the source material for endless jokes and laughter.
Over time the media attention and in particular in my mind, the violence at his rallies seemed to change the perception of Trump. He went from joke to feared demagogue and worse, someone who would unleash ‘the basket of deplorables’ on America. He would give demagogic approval to the deplorables to force more violence, more hate, more irrationality, more divisiveness, and be free of thoughtful careful policy, fine character, basic reasonable decorum, and even the fundamental human emotions of empathy and compassion.
Right now I think there’s another shift occurring. He is indeed the laughingstock, he is the joke source. It's back. The media is less enthralled with his potential validity as a candidate. We’ve gotten more familiar with his supporters and understanding little by little what they seek and why, and how they learned these things. That divide remains, Trump added fuel to it and this is his miserable legacy. The debate was the exclamation point though. Trump is utterly unprepared, utterly ill informed, utterly ill tempered, he’s seeks revenge over embarrassing sideshow escapades and pours endless effort into them. It's pathetic.
NY Times: No Debate That Hillary Clinton’s Polling Numbers Are Improving by Nate Cohn
Reactions To Trump's Machado War
From Business Insider - "A rational candidate, coolly focused on what message he could send to best win over voters, would understand that there is nothing to gain by arguing about whether Machado is a good person, let alone about whether her weight gain was "a real problem."
"But Trump is not rational. He's on tilt."
From NBC News - "There's no small amount of irony here. As mentioned earlier, Trump regularly makes outlandish claims based on unnamed or nonexistent citations — whether it's the "extremely credible source" who told him Obama's birth certificate was forged, or his false claim that TV footage exists showing "thousands and thousands" of Muslims in New Jersey celebrating the 9/11 terror attacks. He even defended tweeting fake crime statistics spread by white supremacists to smear blacks, telling Fox's Bill O'Reilly the source — Twitter user @SeanSean252 — was "supposedly an expert."
From Slate - "Trump’s capacity for no-holds-barred shaming of anyone and everyone should give voters cause for deep concern. Even worse, perhaps, is the fact that he can’t stop himself from bullying people even when it’s not in his political interest. His feuds with the Khans and Machado make him look like a cartoonish mob boss seeking sadistic revenge on anyone with less political power than he has. Trump cannot stop punching down until he’s launched every low blow he can dream up. As Clinton tweeted on Friday morning, that’s simply not an appropriate disposition for a president."
From NBC News - "There's no small amount of irony here. As mentioned earlier, Trump regularly makes outlandish claims based on unnamed or nonexistent citations — whether it's the "extremely credible source" who told him Obama's birth certificate was forged, or his false claim that TV footage exists showing "thousands and thousands" of Muslims in New Jersey celebrating the 9/11 terror attacks. He even defended tweeting fake crime statistics spread by white supremacists to smear blacks, telling Fox's Bill O'Reilly the source — Twitter user @SeanSean252 — was "supposedly an expert."
From Slate - "Trump’s capacity for no-holds-barred shaming of anyone and everyone should give voters cause for deep concern. Even worse, perhaps, is the fact that he can’t stop himself from bullying people even when it’s not in his political interest. His feuds with the Khans and Machado make him look like a cartoonish mob boss seeking sadistic revenge on anyone with less political power than he has. Trump cannot stop punching down until he’s launched every low blow he can dream up. As Clinton tweeted on Friday morning, that’s simply not an appropriate disposition for a president."
Psyop
Clinton didn't have to 'derange' Trump, he already is deranged.
Business Insider: Hillary Clinton ran a perfect psyop to derange Donald Trump by Josh Barro
Business Insider: Hillary Clinton ran a perfect psyop to derange Donald Trump by Josh Barro
0% Support For Trump In Detroit
Heh...
CBS Local: Donald Trump Polls At 0 Percent In Detroit
CBS Local: Donald Trump Polls At 0 Percent In Detroit
As Trump visits metro Detroit again Friday, a new WDIV poll shows him with zero support — literally — inside the city of Detroit.
Obsessed
NY Times: Donald Trump Bashes Alicia Machado Again, Alleging a ‘Sex Tape’ (Without Evidence) By ALAN RAPPEPORT
The attack, in a flurry of tweets on the topic posted from 5:14 to 5:30 a.m. Eastern time, was the latest effort by Mr. Trump, the Republican presidential nominee, to discredit the beauty queen, Alicia Machado, after Hillary Clinton used her as an example of his sexism during the debate on Monday night.
Maintain
Science Daily: Moderate activity helps older adults maintain mobility, independence
summary - By adopting a walking routine and other moderate physical activities, older adults can recover from a major disability more quickly, and maintain their independence over time, according to a new study.
Up
At 9:39 a.m. on Friday morning, Five Thirty Eight has Clinton with a 66.3% chance of winning the election, up from 54% four days ago on September 26th. What a difference a highly watched debate can do considering her opponent had all he could to string together a coherent sentence.
2016 Election Forecast
2016 Election Forecast
Trump's Obsession With Weight
What's with this guy, he must look in the mirror and through those rose tinted glasses see a trim person with a six pack - ha!
MSNBC: Mika: Trump telling women he determines beauty - Mika Brzezinski weighs in on this week's controversy involving former Miss Universe Alicia Machado and Donald Trump's remarks about her weight.
MSNBC: Mika: Trump telling women he determines beauty - Mika Brzezinski weighs in on this week's controversy involving former Miss Universe Alicia Machado and Donald Trump's remarks about her weight.
$800 Million Down
Forbes: Donald Trump's Fortune Falls $800 Million To $3.7 Billion
One more thing: The bombastic Republican presidential candidate said on Monday night that his FEC filing showed income of $694 million for the past year. It doesn’t, because in the document he freely mixed revenue with income, and it covers a period of 17 months.
The Market On Friday
Good morning. It is 55 degrees and cloudy here in the Upper Hudson Valley, the forecast predicts a rainy day with temperatures in the high 50s this afternoon. It's the last day of September, time is flying. We are heading into October and the final stretch in the campaign to elect a new president. Trump has had a ridiculously bad week and Clinton is clearly benefiting with a boost in preliminary polls. At some point today we will see real polling on the effect of the debate. I suspect Clinton will get that little bump, maybe a percent or two, and that little bump will give her a definite positive push in the swing states.
At 9:20 a.m. ET futures are ever so slightly higher and the price of oil per barrel is slightly up, now trading close to $48. The market is poised to open slightly higher.
It's the end of another month. Next week we will get important numbers on September job growth or lack there of. This morning it is Germany's Deutsche Bank that is under pressure and is pulling Eurozone stocks lower. This seems to have had a ripple effect on Wall street this morning.
CNN: Deutsche Bank slumps; European markets follow; Brexit relief by Mark Thompson
At 9:20 a.m. ET futures are ever so slightly higher and the price of oil per barrel is slightly up, now trading close to $48. The market is poised to open slightly higher.
It's the end of another month. Next week we will get important numbers on September job growth or lack there of. This morning it is Germany's Deutsche Bank that is under pressure and is pulling Eurozone stocks lower. This seems to have had a ripple effect on Wall street this morning.
CNN: Deutsche Bank slumps; European markets follow; Brexit relief by Mark Thompson
Deutsche Bank's woes triggered hefty losses for European banks more broadly, pulling the region's main market indexes lower.
This Is True
My personal Summer food routine
- cut out the sweets
- cut out the white flour foods
- ate more vegetables and salads
- stopped eating past 6PM no night snacks
I lost 10 pounds, I’m back to 160 almost my high school weight, and I feel better and sleep better.
- cut out the sweets
- cut out the white flour foods
- ate more vegetables and salads
- stopped eating past 6PM no night snacks
I lost 10 pounds, I’m back to 160 almost my high school weight, and I feel better and sleep better.
‘Registrarse Para Votar’
Politico: Insiders: Trump had a terrible week - 'Clinton should send him a thank-you note,' said a Wisconsin Republican. By Steven Shepard
“Not only did Trump lose the debate, he's spent the entire week on the defensive over his stupid comments about a woman's weight...His inability to let anything go makes every controversy ten times worse. The fact that ‘registrarse para votar’ was a top Google search nationally after the debate is a good sign for Clinton in states like Nevada.”
Thursday, September 29, 2016
Death Threat - Arizona Republic
Yahoo: US paper facing threats for endorsing Hillary Clinton
The editorial page director said the paper had also received some threatening phone calls and a death threat but did not elaborate.
Update
At 4 p.m. today - Five Thirty Eight has lifted Clinton's chances of winning to just shy of 64% and they are now showing Nevada and Florida as back in the blue column. That's quite a gain in one week, it's the debate, got to be.
election forecast
election forecast
Horse's Derrier
New Yorker: Liz Smith’s Trump Memories - The veteran gossip columnist recalls decades of dishing the dirt on “the Donald Trumps.” By Jeffrey Toobin
"I never took him seriously. I didn’t even think he would last in New York, because people hated him once they got to know him. He was a horse’s ass. Still is.”
Actual Scientific
Quite the times we live in. Thanks to the GOP and its collective little pointy headed separate reality along with its need to place opinion above facts, we now have to read articles like this one that point out - "actual scientific polls". That would be as opposed to the nonsense that is a key highlight of rightwing nut tunnel echo chamber vision world.
Business Insider: The results are in: Actual scientific polls show a big win for Hillary Clinton in the first debate by Allan Smith
Business Insider: The results are in: Actual scientific polls show a big win for Hillary Clinton in the first debate by Allan Smith
Trump Watch
Slate: Today’s Trump Apocalypse Watch: Something Debate Prep Can’t Fix By Josh Voorhees
Trump’s aides are suggesting they aren’t even sure they can convince their candidate to commit to taking his prep seriously before the second debate because there’s a non-zero chance that Trump thinks he actually performed well at the first one. So, yeah, the sun is shining, the horizon almost inviting.
Bounce
On Thursday morning September 29th, all major polls are reacting favorably to Clinton, a result of the debate.
The New York Times has Clinton with a 72% chance of winning up from 69% earlier this week.
Five Thirty Eight has Clinton with a 62% chance of winning up from 54% earlier this week.
The Princeton Election Consortium has Clinton with an 85% of winning.
source - NY Times Election forecast
The New York Times has Clinton with a 72% chance of winning up from 69% earlier this week.
Five Thirty Eight has Clinton with a 62% chance of winning up from 54% earlier this week.
The Princeton Election Consortium has Clinton with an 85% of winning.
source - NY Times Election forecast
Alcohol
Science Daily: Alcohol shown to act in same way as rapid antidepressants
summary - Can having a few drinks help people with clinical depression feel better? Yes. At least in terms of biochemistry, say scientists.
SNL Goes For The Trump Jugular
I will be staying up late Saturday to watch SNL. This is going to be fun.
Politico: Will 'Saturday Night Live' take down Trump? 'Maybe it’s going to take comedians to do the job that cable news has relinquished for so much of the campaign.' By Shane Goldmacher
Politico: Will 'Saturday Night Live' take down Trump? 'Maybe it’s going to take comedians to do the job that cable news has relinquished for so much of the campaign.' By Shane Goldmacher
Actor Alec Baldwin will debut as Trump.
The Market On Thursday
Good morning. It is 55 degrees and sunny here in the Upper Hudson Valley, the forecast predicts a partly cloudy day with temperatures in the 70s this afternoon. According to Five Thirty Eight's Nate Silver preliminary reports indicate that Clinton may have gotten a post debate bump. I posted the link early this morning below. She is deserving. Trump is awful, let's face it, this man is the worst thing. But if for some reason the American people in their great wisdom vote him into office, I will be changing my career. At that point I will be writing for every possible website and publication I can. Everybody has got to do something in the event he wins. We can't let that narcissistic megalomaniac wreck the country even worse. Maybe we can get a succession movement started for New York.
At 9:00 a.m. ET futures are modestly lower and the price of oil per barrel is down now trading around $47. The market is poised to open lower.
Lo and behold OPEC agreed to cut production at an meeting in Algeria on Wednesday. Immediately following the news, oil prices rose about $1.50 per barrel. This morning oil prices are slightly retreating because investors think OPEC can't deliver on the deal. Now they want to see evidence and not just emotion. Emotion caused oil prices to rise on Wednesday, today it's about the tangible goods. My own guess is that oil will possibly remain more stable in the $45 to $50 range and if results do in fact come in and the global oil glut lessens, then maybe, and only maybe will it break above $50 per barrel. For the time being though, I also guess/speculate that gas prices might rise by a fraction. We shall see.
CNN: OPEC cut lifts markets; Yellen speaks; Stumpf testifies by Ivana Kottasova
At 9:00 a.m. ET futures are modestly lower and the price of oil per barrel is down now trading around $47. The market is poised to open lower.
Lo and behold OPEC agreed to cut production at an meeting in Algeria on Wednesday. Immediately following the news, oil prices rose about $1.50 per barrel. This morning oil prices are slightly retreating because investors think OPEC can't deliver on the deal. Now they want to see evidence and not just emotion. Emotion caused oil prices to rise on Wednesday, today it's about the tangible goods. My own guess is that oil will possibly remain more stable in the $45 to $50 range and if results do in fact come in and the global oil glut lessens, then maybe, and only maybe will it break above $50 per barrel. For the time being though, I also guess/speculate that gas prices might rise by a fraction. We shall see.
CNN: OPEC cut lifts markets; Yellen speaks; Stumpf testifies by Ivana Kottasova
Crude prices jumped more than 5% overnight to just over $47 per barrel after OPEC countries finally struck a preliminary agreement to cut oil production.
Damaged
New Yorker: How Much Damage Did the Debate Do to Donald Trump? By John Cassidy
“If Mr. Trump had a strategy for winning Monday night’s face-off with Mrs. Clinton, it remains as secret as his plan to defeat [the] Islamic State.”
Bounce
Five Thirty Eight: Election Update: Early Polls Suggest A Post-Debate Bounce For Clinton By Nate Silver
But so far, we’ve seen just two polls released that tested Clinton’s standing against Trump after the debate. They have pretty good news for Clinton, but I’d recommend some caution until we get more data.
Wednesday, September 28, 2016
Freak Out
He wants us to not be complacent.
Raw Story: ‘TRUMP IS GONNA WIN’: Michael Moore freaks out after first presidential debate
Raw Story: ‘TRUMP IS GONNA WIN’: Michael Moore freaks out after first presidential debate
Unsafe Air Pollution
Sort of an oxymoron - unsafe air pollution.
Science Daily: 92% of the world’s population exposed to unsafe levels of air pollution
Science Daily: 92% of the world’s population exposed to unsafe levels of air pollution
summary - A new WHO air quality model confirms that 92% of the world's population lives in places where air quality levels exceed WHO limits. Some 3 million deaths a year are linked to exposure to outdoor air pollution. Indoor air pollution can be just as deadly. In 2012, an estimated 6.5 million deaths (11.6% of all global deaths) were associated with indoor and outdoor air pollution together.
Trump Attempts To Reframe Reality - Once Again
You see he just sat back and took a terrible beating because his heart is so big; he didn't want to embarass Chelsea Clinton. What a man...
NBC News: Analysis: Trump Tries Reframing Poor Debate Performance at Florida Rally by Alexandra Jaffe
NBC News: Analysis: Trump Tries Reframing Poor Debate Performance at Florida Rally by Alexandra Jaffe
Millennial Women And Clinton
Guardian UK: Don’t tell Dad I’m voting for Hillary: young women on sexism in the family - As fathers issue warnings about Benghazi and Clinton’s pantsuits, millennial women balance political passions with hope for a drama-free Thanksgiving
One woman from a pro-Clinton Facebook group says her father point-blank asked her if the country is really ready for a woman president. Other women’s dads equate Bill Clinton’s wandering eye with Hillary’s supposed failure as a human being – if she can’t even hold her own husband’s interest, how can she captivate a country?
Global Warming - CO2 Level Permanently Above 400 PPM
Climate Central:
The World Passes 400 PPM Threshold. Permanently by Brian Kahn
...never to return below it in our lifetimes, according to scientists.
The Market On Wednesday
Good morning. It is 57 degrees and mostly sunny here in the Upper Hudson Valley, the forecast predicts a partly sunny day with temperatures in the 70s this afternoon. The consensus remains that Clinton won debate one. The horribly immature and decidedly obnoxious Trump spent a good part of Tuesday creating a series of 'reasons' why he performed so poorly. From a bad microphone, which we all heard loud and clear - unfortunately, to a bad moderator, who was about as non present as a person could be, Trump ran the gamut of nonsense. Then he doubled down on his repulsive sexist criticism of Alicia Machado. The man is hopelessly immature.
At 9:15 a.m. ET futures are ever so slightly higher and the price of oil per barrel is up. The market is poised to open slightly higher.
The oil talks in Algeria appear to be ending as everyone predicted, with nothing on the table about limiting oil supplies. The can was kicked down the road to November.
CNN: China IPO flop; big day for takeovers; oil still in the spotlight by Alanna Petroff
At 9:15 a.m. ET futures are ever so slightly higher and the price of oil per barrel is up. The market is poised to open slightly higher.
The oil talks in Algeria appear to be ending as everyone predicted, with nothing on the table about limiting oil supplies. The can was kicked down the road to November.
CNN: China IPO flop; big day for takeovers; oil still in the spotlight by Alanna Petroff
Hopes for an agreement to freeze production in an effort to boost prices faded on Tuesday. Saudi Arabia said a deal may be possible by November, but key details still need to be worked out. U.S. crude futures were up 0.4% after slumping Tuesday at about $45 a barrel.
Tuesday, September 27, 2016
From Bruce Springsteen
Some people seemed upset that I called @realDonaldTrump a moron, so I wanted to clarify my remarks: He's also an asshole. #ImWithHer
Elephant Population Declines From Poaching
Science Daily: Poaching behind worst African elephant losses in 25 years
summary - Africa's overall elephant population has seen the worst declines in 25 years, mainly due to poaching over the past ten years -- according to IUCN's African Elephant Status Report.
Global Warming - History And The Future
Climate Central:
What 2 Million Years of Temps Say About the Future by Brian Kahn
Humans have altered that equation, however, pouring enough carbon dioxide into the atmosphere so that levels are higher than they’ve been in millions of years.
The Market On Tuesday
Good morning. It is 59 degrees and cloudy here in the Upper Hudson Valley, the forecast predicts a sunny day with temperatures in the 70s this afternoon. Well, we were all concerned that somehow Trump would gain the upper hand in the first debate. He did not, in fact Trump failed miserably. His performance was childish, rude, incoherent, and a sniffling mess. After weeks of Trump hitting Clinton over her health, the orange guy shows up at the major moment sniffling like a little baby, and looking remarkably unhealthy. Clinton was poised, prepared, smart, and presidential. Trump will never be presidential, it's hopeless. Now we wait a few days and see if any of this affects the polls. The newspapers of record, unanimously declare Clinton the victor, and for good measure so did all the betting markets, with Clinton's chances of winning in the gambling sector rising. Let's hope that Clinton sees the blood in the water and swoops in to finish off this clown in the next debate, leaving the helpless Trump hysterically shaking like the little petulant infant that he is. Expect Trump surrogates to be on the air all day long attempting to spin the disaster and attempting to clean up the huge pile of dung left by Trump on the collective global conscience.
At 8:30 a.m. ET futures are modestly higher and the price of oil per barrel is down. The market is poised to open modestly higher.
Investors seemed relieved that debate one went Clinton's way with the market reacting positively this morning. It is the big OPEC meeting in Algeria that has everyone's attention. No agreement on oil production will be reached.
CNN: Stocks unruffled by debate; oil down as OPEC meets; Deutsche slides again by Ivana Kottasova
At 8:30 a.m. ET futures are modestly higher and the price of oil per barrel is down. The market is poised to open modestly higher.
Investors seemed relieved that debate one went Clinton's way with the market reacting positively this morning. It is the big OPEC meeting in Algeria that has everyone's attention. No agreement on oil production will be reached.
CNN: Stocks unruffled by debate; oil down as OPEC meets; Deutsche slides again by Ivana Kottasova
All eyes will be on OPEC oil ministers meeting on the sidelines of an energy forum in Algeria. The oil cartel is trying to build consensus for a production cut to support prices.
Bill Maher On The Debate
Negative ads in a political race are "not nice?" There's no crying in politics, you #WhinyLittleBitch!
Monday, September 26, 2016
She Killed Him
My comment for the New York Times, which is getting well received -
"Trump was incoherent, out of gas, unprepared, childish, rude, and malignant - a babbling moron."
"Trump was incoherent, out of gas, unprepared, childish, rude, and malignant - a babbling moron."
Monday Afternoon Polling
The NY Times has Clinton with a 69% chance of winning.
Five Thirty Eight has Clinton with a 53% chance of winning.
Daily Kos has Clinton with a 64% chance of winning.
The Princeton Election Consortium has Clinton with a 79% chance of winning.
Clinton supporters still prefer her position in the polls compared to his.
Five Thirty Eight has Clinton with a 53% chance of winning.
Daily Kos has Clinton with a 64% chance of winning.
The Princeton Election Consortium has Clinton with a 79% chance of winning.
Clinton supporters still prefer her position in the polls compared to his.
Pluto
Science Daily: Pluto's 'heart' sheds light on possible buried ocean
summary - Ever since NASA's New Horizons spacecraft flew by Pluto last year, evidence has been mounting that the dwarf planet may have a liquid ocean beneath its icy shell. Now, by modeling the impact dynamics that created a massive crater on Pluto's surface, a team of researchers has made a new estimate of how thick that liquid layer might be.
Murder
Guardian UK: Murders up 10.8% in biggest percentage increase since 1971, FBI data shows - Sharp increase for 2015 follows long downward trend as crime experts brace for political ‘hysteria’ amid 2016 election, though they say surge may not last
The human cost of an overreaction to the murder increase could be “a lot bigger” than the toll of the rising violence itself, said John Pfaff, a Fordham University law professor who studies criminal sentencing and incarceration.
Global Warming - Terns
Guardian UK: Terns follow record warm temperatures in 'shock' migration to north of Alaska - Researchers on north-west coast of Alaska startled to discover Caspian terns 1,000 miles farther north than species had been previously recorded
The birds were an incredible 1,000 miles further north than the species had been previously recorded.
The Market On Monday
Good morning. It is 45 degrees and sunny here in the Upper Hudson Valley, the forecast predicts rain later on and temperatures in the low 70s this afternoon. I hope you had a good weekend, I did indeed. Well the day is starting off with a real bang. Looks like the presidential race has tightened even more, and doesn't that just make you feel all warm and cozy. Tonight is, as we know, the big night, with debate number one on tap starting at 9 p.m. ET. Lots of words have been shed in anticipation of this event, I expect a real storm. I wish I had something formidable to say here, but I don't. I believe the country needs to lose its collective mind every decade and blow off a lot of crazed steam. If the country votes in Trump, hang onto your hats, it's going to be turbulent and especially unpleasant. The question is, will the country survive? I suspect the wound will be long and deep, and unfortunately the issues that are really pressing the country and the globe will lay around collecting dust.
At 9:00 a.m. ET futures are moderately lower and the price of oil per barrel is up. The market is poised to open moderately lower.
Investors will indeed be watching the debate. I will easily predict the country hits a major recession with Trump as his main idea appears to be to run up the national debt. That should essentially kill off what remains of any social programs, and say bye bye to SSI as well. It's going to be a mess.
CNN: Deutsche Bank slumps; Clinton vs Trump; OPEC gathers by Alanna Petroff
At 9:00 a.m. ET futures are moderately lower and the price of oil per barrel is up. The market is poised to open moderately lower.
Investors will indeed be watching the debate. I will easily predict the country hits a major recession with Trump as his main idea appears to be to run up the national debt. That should essentially kill off what remains of any social programs, and say bye bye to SSI as well. It's going to be a mess.
CNN: Deutsche Bank slumps; Clinton vs Trump; OPEC gathers by Alanna Petroff
Banking stocks are among the main losers right now.
OPEC nations and other global oil producers will be huddling at a meeting in Algeria this week.
Saturday, September 24, 2016
Closed Sundays
The blog is closed on Sundays. See you bright and early Monday morning.
work by Bill Traylor
work by Bill Traylor
'Chicken Of The Woods'
This is food, recently purchased at the local Saturday Farmer's Market. It's called 'Chicken Of The Woods' or Laetiporus, an edible mushroom. Never had it but the farmer said it tastes like chicken. He sells it one week out of the year, it's a real quick harvest.
NY Times For Clinton
NY Times: Our endorsement is rooted in respect
for her intellect, experience and courage. Hillary Clinton for President By THE EDITORIAL BOARD
We will explain in a subsequent editorial why we believe Mr. Trump to be the worst nominee put forward by a major party in modern American history.
Endurance Training - DNA
Science Daily: Multifaceted genetic impact of training
summary - Endurance training changes the activity of thousands of genes and give rise to a multitude of altered DNA-copies, RNA, researchers report. The study also nuances the concept of muscle memory.
Global Warming - Greenland
Climate Central: Greenland is Losing More Ice Than Scientists Thought
The Greenland ice sheet contains enough water that, if melted, would raise sea levels up to 23 feet.
Before Debate 1
The New York Times has Clinton with a 72% chance of winning.
Five Thirty Eight has Clinton with a 61% chance of winning.
Daily Kos has Clinton with a 64% chance of winning.
The Princeton Election Consortium has Clinton with an 82% chance of winning.
Sabato has Clinton as 'very likely' to win.
Five Thirty Eight has Clinton with a 61% chance of winning.
Daily Kos has Clinton with a 64% chance of winning.
The Princeton Election Consortium has Clinton with an 82% chance of winning.
Sabato has Clinton as 'very likely' to win.
Friday, September 23, 2016
PIEZO2 And Proprioception
Science Daily: 'Sixth sense' may be more than just a feeling - Study of rare genetic disorder reveals importance of touch and body awareness
summary - With the help of two young patients with a unique neurological disorder, scientists have discovered that a gene called PIEZO2 controls specific aspects of human touch and proprioception, a "sixth sense" describing awareness of one's body in space. Mutations in the gene caused the two to have movement and balance problems and the loss of some forms of touch. Despite their difficulties, they both appeared to cope with these challenges by relying heavily on vision and other senses.
Chicago
Parts of the country are starting to appear as the apocalyptic areas from a Hollywood sci-fi trashed humanity film.
Guardian UK: Hobos gang trial puts deadly turf war ravaging Chicago front and center - The high-profile criminal case against leaders is expected to be a window inside the sweeping drug operation that has devastated the city
Guardian UK: Hobos gang trial puts deadly turf war ravaging Chicago front and center - The high-profile criminal case against leaders is expected to be a window inside the sweeping drug operation that has devastated the city
Global Warming - National Security
Climate Central: Obama Just Tied Climate Change to National Security By Brian Kahn
The White House: Presidential Memorandum -- Climate Change and National Security
The White House: Presidential Memorandum -- Climate Change and National Security
Extended drought, more frequent and severe weather events, heat waves, warming and acidifying ocean waters, catastrophic wildfires, and rising sea levels all have compounding effects on people's health and well-being. Flooding and water scarcity can negatively affect food and energy production. Energy infrastructure, essential for supporting other key sectors, is already vulnerable to extreme weather and may be further compromised. Impacts of a changing climate can create conditions that promote pest outbreaks and the spread of invasive species as well as plant, animal, and human disease, including emerging infectious disease, and these can further undermine economic growth and livelihoods. Impacts can also disrupt transportation service, cutting off vulnerable communities from relief immediately after events and reducing economic output. These conditions, in turn, can stress some countries' ability to provide the conditions necessary for human security. All of these effects can lead to population migration within and across international borders, spur crises, and amplify or accelerate conflict in countries or regions already facing instability and fragility.
The Market On Friday
Good morning. It is 66 degrees and cloudy here in the Upper Hudson Valley, the forecast predicts a cloudy day with temperatures in the high 70s this afternoon. A lot of the focus of the news media right now is on the upcoming debate. One thing we can count on is that the event will be unorthodox in its nature. We do expect Trump to be compellingly ugly. If you get a chance, watch the 'Between Two Ferns' video I posted on Thursday. I think it's a riot, others might not agree so much. Regardless, it's an opportunity to see Clinton in a slightly different context, but I must admit she is a reserved person, and she is conscious of her expressions and actions. Clinton is very intelligent and she is also very aware, she has a high degree of self awareness. She works hard at attempting to speak with caution, but she does screw that up now and again as we know. Trump on the other hand has virtually no self censoring devices, which apparently is appealing to many. They say he speaks his mind, I say he's a boorish individual. I mean let's face it, anybody can say crude things, what exactly is the trick there. I find it a major flaw in his character, one of many actually.
At 9:15 a.m. ET futures are almost flat and the price of oil per barrel is down, now trading around $46. The market is poised to open in the flat area.
Oil is on investors' minds as there is an upcoming OPEC meeting next week. Allegedly the OPEC people will discuss the idea of a production freeze, which, if it happened, would send oil up probably around another, oh I don't know, perhaps as much as $5 to $15 almost instantly. Let's say it would definitely solidify the $50 trading range. But, that won't happen. OPEC meetings are also allegedly a pointless activity. Expect the meeting to fall apart with many disagreements. So look for oil to drop to around $40 by next Friday, this is all pure poppycock speculation on my part.
CNN: Stocks and oil lower; Fed members speak; Yahoo sinks by Alanna Petroff
At 9:15 a.m. ET futures are almost flat and the price of oil per barrel is down, now trading around $46. The market is poised to open in the flat area.
Oil is on investors' minds as there is an upcoming OPEC meeting next week. Allegedly the OPEC people will discuss the idea of a production freeze, which, if it happened, would send oil up probably around another, oh I don't know, perhaps as much as $5 to $15 almost instantly. Let's say it would definitely solidify the $50 trading range. But, that won't happen. OPEC meetings are also allegedly a pointless activity. Expect the meeting to fall apart with many disagreements. So look for oil to drop to around $40 by next Friday, this is all pure poppycock speculation on my part.
CNN: Stocks and oil lower; Fed members speak; Yahoo sinks by Alanna Petroff
Oil prices and stocks have been closely correlated over the last year or so. And oil is moving based on expectations about what may happen at an OPEC meeting in Algeria next week. Oil producers are talking again about whether to freeze production.
Thursday, September 22, 2016
Ouch
Drew Magary brews up a colossal rant against Trump. Read it if you feel like you need emotional support.
GQ: If You Vote For Trump, Then Screw You by Drew Magary
GQ: If You Vote For Trump, Then Screw You by Drew Magary
The Market On Thursday
Good morning. It is 59 degrees and it is sunny here in the Upper Hudson Valley, the forecast predicts a sunny day with temperatures in the 80s this afternoon. It's the first day of Autumn and for many of us it's our favorite time of the year. I think it traces back to the first days of school and all the possibilities of young romance. Remember being in 6th grade and having a terrible crush on that special person. Do that every year during your formative time and it sticks with you for decades and decades. Also it's such a celebratory time, even though I've never been on a hayride in my life, the thought of it is appealing. Plus Fall is about the apples, apple pie, and cider. So far they, the apples, have been pretty good too. As we know, it's going to be a helluva ride this Fall with the election and our fragile political system so maliciously divided and screwed up, replete with absurd ideas, fake information, screwy notions, and brimming with hatred, fear, and contempt. Okay so there are a few things working against this Autumn but take a few moments to appreciate what we do have.
At 9:00 a.m. ET futures are moderately higher and the price of oil per barrel is up now trading around $46. The market is poised to open moderately higher.
I'm going with the consensus. Investors liked hearing that there was no base interest rate from the Fed on Wednesday and today their getting their freak on and enjoying it. On the other hand, there's never a guarantee that monetary emotion holds an entire day of trading together.
CNN: Stocks get Fed afterglow; Yahoo in focus; Samsung rallies by Alanna Petroff
At 9:00 a.m. ET futures are moderately higher and the price of oil per barrel is up now trading around $46. The market is poised to open moderately higher.
I'm going with the consensus. Investors liked hearing that there was no base interest rate from the Fed on Wednesday and today their getting their freak on and enjoying it. On the other hand, there's never a guarantee that monetary emotion holds an entire day of trading together.
CNN: Stocks get Fed afterglow; Yahoo in focus; Samsung rallies by Alanna Petroff
Investors are happy that interest rates are staying near their lowest levels ever. The policy is meant to get money coursing through the veins of the economy and support inflation and employment.
Wednesday, September 21, 2016
'Stupid'
Notice the dropping of any pretenses and jumping on a word like 'stupid'.
NY Times: Mr. Trump’s Stupid Excuses on Taxes By THE EDITORIAL BOARD
NY Times: Mr. Trump’s Stupid Excuses on Taxes By THE EDITORIAL BOARD
Nicotine
Science Daily: Can nicotine protect the aging brain?
summary - Everyone knows that tobacco products are bad for your health. However, according to research, it turns out the nicotine itself--when given independently from tobacco--could help protect the brain as it ages, and even ward off Parkinson's or Alzheimer's disease.
Global Warming - Hottest August On Record
Climate Central: Streak of Record-Hot Temps Adds Another Month By Andrea Thompson
That makes 16 straight record-hot months, unparalleled in NOAA’s 137 years of record-keeping.
Poll Roundup
A survey of the polls this morning, Wednesday September 21st
- The NY Times has Clinton with a 75% chance of winning.
- Five Thirty Eight has Clinton with a 57% chance of winning.
- Daily Kos has Clinton with a 63% chance of winning.
- Predict Wise has Clinton with a 72% chance of winning.
- The Princeton Election Consortium has Clinton with an 81% chance of winning.
Generally speaking Clinton supporters might wish to see the percentages higher, but considering the numbers, imagine if Clinton were in Trump's position.
- The NY Times has Clinton with a 75% chance of winning.
- Five Thirty Eight has Clinton with a 57% chance of winning.
- Daily Kos has Clinton with a 63% chance of winning.
- Predict Wise has Clinton with a 72% chance of winning.
- The Princeton Election Consortium has Clinton with an 81% chance of winning.
Generally speaking Clinton supporters might wish to see the percentages higher, but considering the numbers, imagine if Clinton were in Trump's position.
The Market On Wednesday
Good morning. It is 63 degrees and sunny here in the Upper Hudson Valley, the forecast predicts a sunny day with temperatures in the 80s this afternoon. It is the last official day of Summer, enjoy it while it lasts. Everyone is curious about what type of climate changed Winter we will have this year. Will it be a no Winter like last year, with hardly any snow and more moderate temperatures. Or will we have another extreme Winter like the one from two years ago, with endless snow and extra-freezing temperatures. Who knows. Tough night as people in Charlotte, North Carolina were rioting over the killing of an innocent black man by the police. I'm reading that the cop responsible is a black man. One suspects that a Trump presidency will go along with a lot of rioting.
At 8:40 a.m. ET futures are moderately higher and the price of oil per barrel is up now trading around $45. The market is poised to open moderately higher.
It's a big Fed day as investors wait to hear from Janet Yellen this afternoon. I'm reading that the chance of a base interest rate hike is around 12%. But you never know. The Bank Of Japan is trying out a 0% interest rate yield 10 year bond in an effort to improve their economy and this move is helping to boost markets this morning.
CNN: Japan lifts markets; Fed up next; oil prices rise by Alanna Petroff
At 8:40 a.m. ET futures are moderately higher and the price of oil per barrel is up now trading around $45. The market is poised to open moderately higher.
It's a big Fed day as investors wait to hear from Janet Yellen this afternoon. I'm reading that the chance of a base interest rate hike is around 12%. But you never know. The Bank Of Japan is trying out a 0% interest rate yield 10 year bond in an effort to improve their economy and this move is helping to boost markets this morning.
CNN: Japan lifts markets; Fed up next; oil prices rise by Alanna Petroff
All eyes will be on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision at 2 p.m. ET, followed by Janet Yellen's press conference 30 minutes later.
Tuesday, September 20, 2016
'Crude Populism'
Politico: Obama ditches diplomacy, attacks Trump at U.N. - The president didn't use Trump's name. But he didn't need to. By Edward-Isaac Dovere
“aggressive nationalism, a crude populism…which seeks to restore what they believe was a better, simpler age free of outside contamination.”
“Today a nation ringed by walls would only imprison itself..."
President Trump's First Term
New Yorker: President Trump’s First Term His campaign tells us a lot about what kind of Commander-in-Chief he would be. By Evan Osnos
“We want to identify maybe twenty-five executive orders that Trump could sign literally the first day in office."
(note - Obama is often described by GOP and Trump supporters as violating the Constitution because he signs executive orders! The point is that it's okay if a GOP president signs an executive order, but not a Democratic President. Do you see how that works. One is violating the Constitution, but the other is merely being Presidential.)
The Brain
Science Daily: Math study shows our brains are far more adaptable than we know
summary - Human babies and even animals have a basic number sense that many believe evolves from seeing the world and trying to quantify all the sights. But vision has nothing to do with it -- neuroscientists have found that the brain network behind numerical reasoning is identical in blind and sighted people.
If You Can Make It Here
Big f-ing deal, if Clinton were losing in New York, I'd have the house up for sale plotting my escape.
Politico: New Siena poll finds Clinton, Schumer with big leads in New York By Bill Mahoney
Politico: New Siena poll finds Clinton, Schumer with big leads in New York By Bill Mahoney
The Market On Tuesday
Good morning. It is 64 degrees and getting sunny here in the Upper Hudson Valley, the forecast predicts a sunny day with temperatures in the 80s this afternoon. The first day of Autumn is Thursday, so enjoy these last few days of official Summer. How about that George H.W. Bush publicly saying he will vote for Clinton. That's going do something, exactly what I don't know yet, but definitely something. I suspect he carries some weight with a few Republicans being in the role of a direct descendant of Ronald Reagan.
At 8:50 a.m. ET futures are moderately higher and the price of oil per barrel is down. The market is poised to open moderately higher.
Wednesday looks like it's going to be a more critical type of day with a report coming from the Fed. As we know the Fed holds tremendous power over world markets. Can we just get that base interest rate hike already.
CNN:Stocks: 5 things to know before the open by Alanna Petroff
At 8:50 a.m. ET futures are moderately higher and the price of oil per barrel is down. The market is poised to open moderately higher.
Wednesday looks like it's going to be a more critical type of day with a report coming from the Fed. As we know the Fed holds tremendous power over world markets. Can we just get that base interest rate hike already.
CNN:Stocks: 5 things to know before the open by Alanna Petroff
"Financial markets seem to have pressed the snooze bottom on Tuesday and are not willing to wake up until Wednesday when the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve release their latest monetary policy decisions..."
Monday, September 19, 2016
'Cauliflower Pizza Crust'
Are you with me?
Food Network: Cauliflower Pizza Crust
Damn Delicious: The Best Cauliflower Pizza Crust
Food Network: Cauliflower Pizza Crust
Damn Delicious: The Best Cauliflower Pizza Crust
Oil
Make no mistake, a Trump presidency will be about bringing back oil, full tilt.
Politico: Sources: Oil executive on Trump's short list for Interior Secretary By Helena Bottemiller Evich and Andrew Restuccia
Politico: Sources: Oil executive on Trump's short list for Interior Secretary By Helena Bottemiller Evich and Andrew Restuccia
Food Or Relationship
Science Daily: A dog's dilemma: Do canine's prefer praise or food? Study explores canine reward preferences
summary - Researchers seek to understand whether the dog-human bond is mainly about food, or about the relationship itself.
The Market On Monday
Good morning. It is 68 degrees and it is rainy here in the Upper Hudson Valley, the forecast predicts a cloudy day with temperatures in the high 70s this afternoon. I hope you had a good weekend, mine was busy with all kinds of activities. We had three terrorist style attacks over the weekend and CNN is showing pictures of a suspect in the NY and NJ bomb attacks. Yup, it's a Moslem dude and I fully expect to see more attacks like this for the rest of my natural life. No present or future president is going to stop this.
At 8:45 a.m. ET DOW futures are moderately higher and the price of oil per barrel is up. The market is poised to open moderately higher.
Next week we will see and hear the first presidential debate, and there will also be a special meeting of oil producing countries. The meeting is allegedly about limiting oil output and thus elevating the price of oil globally. Personally I doubt anything will come of it, but the next time they meet in say three to six months, then something might happen. Meanwhile oil producing countries are falling into recession as oil prices decline. Nigeria is presently a regular economic recession basket case.
CNN: Wall Street unfazed by weekend bomb attacks by Alanna Petroff
At 8:45 a.m. ET DOW futures are moderately higher and the price of oil per barrel is up. The market is poised to open moderately higher.
Next week we will see and hear the first presidential debate, and there will also be a special meeting of oil producing countries. The meeting is allegedly about limiting oil output and thus elevating the price of oil globally. Personally I doubt anything will come of it, but the next time they meet in say three to six months, then something might happen. Meanwhile oil producing countries are falling into recession as oil prices decline. Nigeria is presently a regular economic recession basket case.
CNN: Wall Street unfazed by weekend bomb attacks by Alanna Petroff
Crucial transportation links into New York City were closed early Monday after a backpack containing up to five devices was found in Elizabeth, New Jersey.
OPEC and other producers will hold an informal meeting in Algeria next week to discuss the possibility of capping oil production in a bid to boost prices.
Saturday, September 17, 2016
Closed Sundays
The blog is closed on Sundays. See you bright and early Monday morning.
work by Bill Traylor
work by Bill Traylor
Dinosaur Colors
Science Daily: What dinosaurs' color patterns say about their habitat
summary - After reconstructing the color patterns of a well-preserved dinosaur from China, researchers have found that the long-lost species Psittacosaurus (meaning "parrot lizard," a reference to its parrot-like beak) was light on its underside and darker on top.
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