Friday, April 10, 2009

F-n-G ( Fear And Greed)

Click the link below for one of the better summation articles regarding the present state of Wall Street.

Historically the market does recover before the economy, but as the article points out, the negatives like unemployment, housing prices, and bank solvency are still intensely present.

We've been following this thing closely for the last sixteen months. The article also points out that at each juncture where we've had a little rally, a new and more intense downturn has occurred which ultimately hits a newer low.

So at this point with the DOW up slightly over 8K, does it stick? If the past six months are any indication, the answer is no, in fact it would appear to be ready to dive below 6K because that would be the next low stop on this disaster. Investors want a Passover-Easter rally, so don't get too fooled. Lots of things are engineered deliberately on Wall Street, Wells Fargo or not.

Also remember that we were watching the DOW float around in the 8K area several weeks ago and it seemed to be consistent and steady. Hey it even touched 9K. We thought at that point we might be at bottom as well. Now the DOW is even lower and we think that 8,083 is a big deal. Hey several weeks ago 8,083 was giving everybody angina.

Reuters: Is greed overcoming fear in the stock market?
"The more skepticism we see (in the market), the better the chances the market has of going up," he said. "We don't want to see optimism here, that would be a negative for market."

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