Outlook

The keyword for Wall Street at present is mostly optimism, again. There are still many analysts and financiers talking about the cycle that we have experienced over the past 16 months. That would be a bear rally followed by an even steeper loss. Need we mention that a 7 week rally is in progress and that could be followed by...

For the record, the DOW is slightly down from last week's Friday closing number.

In both cases the present optimism and the shadowy pessimism are based on economic indicators i.e. which companies are not doing as badly as expected, which banks are indicating they are adequately capitalized, durable goods sales, the price of oil and gold, the comments of essential economic managers, who is buying investments and what is their motivation for buying investments, and usually not unemployment.

Hey, I'm just like everyone else, if this recession is receding and we are at bottom, great. Following this thing closely makes me believe that this is not the case.

The bubble economy of the best Bush years, was not "real." Essentially it was based on selling unstable debt as a solid asset. It was based on running up debt. Clearly this is not something that we can return to. We are saying the DOW is down huge numbers. This is true but the high numbers were illusory and the background became fundamentally flawed. We cannot return to this.

I believe an essential shift is occurring. The economy will rebuild from this leveled playing field in a different direction. The end of the line for the Pontiac is a symptom of this shift - out with the muscle gas guzzler and in with the high tech hybrid, or electric car, or smart car, or scooter.

Obama is attempting to place alternative energy right into the thick of the economic fray. This is the future. Naturally, existing corporations and the entire massive economic structure continues, but it is birthing a new and prominent heir. The baby is strategically positioning itself as the new king in waiting.

"The earnings news last night, as well as this morning in general, appears to be relatively positive and, at the core, the durable goods orders this morning also provided further indication that the manufacturing sector is showing tentative signs of improvement..." source

The supply of unsold new U.S. homes plummeted in March in the biggest drop in more than 45 years, government data showed on Friday, offering hope the distressed housing market is stabilizing. source

"At the core, the durable goods orders this morning also provided further indication that the manufacturing sector is showing tentative signs of improvement..." source