“While on its face it may make sense to root for Trump to win the nomination because he seems like the easiest to defeat, variables are not your friend in a presidential campaign,” said Ben LaBolt, a former Obama campaign aide. “You need to build a model that predicts turnout on both sides. And because Trump is such an unconventional politician, it’s hard to predict who will show up for him.”
Friday, February 26, 2016
Unconventional
MSNBC: Why Democrats fear Donald Trump
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
2 comments:
Exactly. what none of the polls figure are that large mass of voters that don't vote ( generally.) Donald is like that rogue comet that knocks an asteroid out of it's orbit and it then falls to Earth. He could be what statisticians call a "black swan event." In short, he could win against a standard political type or a status quo type ( like Hillary.) Hillary's support is very strong WITHIN certain groups in the (D) party, like older women, blacks & Hispanics & older Jews, beyond these groups it's very questionable because her high negatives. That's enough to get her the nomination maybe since she has a serious challenger from the left this year, but is it enough to beat a Donald type character in the general? Should be , because Donald's negatives are higer then her's. That said, if the (D) Youth vote doesn't show up this fall or some of it goes to Donald Hillary could have a problem. My guess is disaffected Repubs. will just stay home they won't vote for Clinton. Very tricky situation indeed.
Yes it's tricky. GOP insiders and Dem insiders are right now working out all kinds of scenarios and potentialities and models about who is going to vote where, who is voting for whom. The Kagan article from the WaPo indicates that Kagan would vote for Hillary. I think that speaks volumes because here we have neocon central saying he will vote with the Dems. Apparently after last night's debate, there's a new tingle about Rubio. Maybe it isn't over yet regarding Trump's ascendancy and we still have to wait and see. It's a wicked year.
Post a Comment