On Oil

  Regarding investing, one can easily find a range of opinions in a number of publications and outlets. One person will tell you to run for your life while another will tell you it's all roses. The price of oil has truly come into focus in the last few weeks. Here's an article from Bloomberg and in particular Mark Mobius on oil. The article is from December 11th and since then the price of oil has declined even further than Mobius' pleasant $60 per barrel. Personally I suspect he is correct. The price of oil will eventually rise, but when? Well that is another story.

Bloomberg: Mark Mobius on Russia, Oil Stocks and Dangers for Long-Term Investors

Taking a short-term view that can bring a risk of being whipsawed. A good example now is oil prices. We've seen oil prices drop, with some people looking at $60 a barrel, and many people will react and sell oil companies.

That could be a big mistake, because the longer-term predictions have oil at $90 or even $100 a barrel. By making this short-term decision on stocks that, by the way, have already gone down, you're selling at the bottom and may get caught having to buy at a top when prices recover.