Monday, January 30, 2017

Please Read This

Shock Event.

From US/GOP historian, BC professor Heather Cox Richardson:
I don't like to talk about politics on Facebook-- political history is my job, after all, and you are my friends-- but there is an important non-partisan point to make today.

What Bannon is doing, most dramatically with last night's ban on immigration from seven predominantly Muslim countries-- is creating what is known as a "shock event." Such an event is unexpected and confusing and throws a society into chaos. People scramble to react to the event, usually along some fault line that those responsible for the event can widen by claiming that they alone know how to restore order. When opponents speak out, the authors of the shock event call them enemies. As society reels and tempers run high, those responsible for the shock event perform a sleight of hand to achieve their real goal, a goal they know to be hugely unpopular, but from which everyone has been distracted as they fight over the initial event. There is no longer concerted opposition to the real goal; opposition divides along the partisan lines established by the shock event.

Last night's Executive Order has all the hallmarks of a shock event. It was not reviewed by any governmental agencies or lawyers before it was released, and counter terrorism experts insist they did not ask for it. People charged with enforcing it got no instructions about how to do so. Courts immediately have declared parts of it unconstitutional, but border police in some airports are refusing to stop enforcing it.

Predictably, chaos has followed and tempers are hot.

My point today is this: unless you are the person setting it up, it is in no one's interest to play the shock event game. It is designed explicitly to divide people who might otherwise come together so they cannot stand against something its authors think they won't like. I don't know what Bannon is up to-- although I have some guesses-- but because I know Bannon's ideas well, I am positive that there is not a single person whom I consider a friend on either side of the aisle-- and my friends range pretty widely-- who will benefit from whatever it is. If the shock event strategy works, though, many of you will blame each other, rather than Bannon, for the fallout. And the country will have been tricked into accepting their real goal.

But because shock events destabilize a society, they can also be used positively. We do not have to respond along old fault lines. We could just as easily reorganize into a different pattern that threatens the people who sparked the event. A successful shock event depends on speed and chaos because it requires knee-jerk reactions so that people divide along established lines. This, for example, is how Confederate leaders railroaded the initial southern states out of the Union. If people realize they are being played, though, they can reach across old lines and reorganize to challenge the leaders who are pulling the strings. This was Lincoln's strategy when he joined together Whigs, Democrats, Free-Soilers, anti-Nebraska voters, and nativists into the new Republican Party to stand against the Slave Power. Five years before, such a coalition would have been unimaginable. Members of those groups agreed on very little other than that they wanted all Americans to have equal economic opportunity. Once they began to work together to promote a fair economic system, though, they found much common ground. They ended up rededicating the nation to a "government of the people, by the people, and for the people."

Confederate leaders and Lincoln both knew about the political potential of a shock event. As we are in the midst of one, it seems worth noting that Lincoln seemed to have the better idea about how to use it.

2 comments:

Glenn Klotz said...

This makes sense when I add it to an article I read earlier today that basically said that while all of us are focused on this created chaos Trumpf et al. are moving quickly behind the scenes to consolidate as much power as they can GRAB to a tight inner circle around Donald. To that end, they are rapidly decapitating whole agencies of the Gov't to deepen and strengthen their control fast. Also, at the same time, a very interesting thing is taking place in Russia that pts. at the ph. call between Trumpf and Putin yesterday. It's believed that Putin is paying off his part of the deal twith Trumpf that was promised if Trump won which is handing 20% of Russia's Oil monopoly ROSNEFT to Trumpf through a web of front companies and offshore banks in the Caribbean and elsewhere. This would make Trumpf extremely wealthy, but his part of the deal will be to lift sanctions against Russia in the near future and allow Russia a free hand in Eastern Europe and especially in the Ukraine. Trumpf and his gang are in essence pulling off an extralegal coup to turn the US into a Dictatorship run by him and a few others around him.

Jim Sande said...

Charming, my sense is that there is a very big resistance coming forward as a result of Trump. Unfortunately as I think about it just now, it might get very ugly out there, blood in the streets and some killings.