Coming Up On Wall Street

Good morning. Welcome to the weekend. It is overcast and cold here in Upstate NY. In this tiny sector of the universe we are looking at some terrifying numbers coming up in the next few days. We are talking numbers like -11, 0, and 1. If you stop seeing posts around here, send authorities to search for my frozen remains.

The stock market sent pangs to the stomach this last week. The feel good merriment of ballooning equities valuation lost some air. Suddenly it became all too clear that we are vulnerable and some began to scramble. The musty familiar ant nest was exposed.

The investment journalists are saying that investors want to not just see signs of a recovery, they want much more. They want fourth quarter reports to drip with liquid gold. They want excess, profits that inspire bacchanalian extravagance. This is point one.

Point two is that historically and with almost an 8 in 10 chance of probability, as January goes, so goes the year. So far, January has been a happy month for equities even adding in last week.

Point three is that February is an historically weak month.

The question seems to be to pullback or not pullback. Reuters is taking a position that is more weighted towards pullback.

Reuters: Bar set high as stocks face pullback

"...people are going to need some evidence of accelerated recovery -- not just baseline recovery..."


..."a healthy pullback" through the historically weak month of February.


"We're looking for a 5 percent to 7 percent pullback range, and I think we started it..."


..."the January effect" that holds the market's direction in January points to stocks' direction for the year. The indicator has a 78.3 percent accuracy rate over the last 60 years, according to the Stock Trader's Almanac.