Thursday, March 05, 2009

Mark Zandi's Economic Predictions

There's an interesting read at McClathy by economic forecaster Mark Zandi.

I picked out the only section that seemed to have any type of optimistic scenario. Its posted below.

We are watching the DOW and S&P fall as flat as a pancake and we all need smelling salts. Today the DOW dropped 281 and is in the hell of Republican policy failures of Christmas's past.

All I know is that the workforce is going to be looking very gray haired and bald in the next decade.

McClatchy: It may be a decade before Dow's back to 12,000, oracle says
Q: Could there be an unanticipated bounce-back?

A: There is dark pessimism, and clearly the risks are decidedly to the downside. But there is a scenario where things turn out better than anticipated, because everything hinges on confidence, sentiment, of business, consumers and investors. And it's possible that the policy response (bank rescues and stimulus spending) shows some progress by the summer.

And it won't take a lot to make people feel a lot better. For example, if you go from losing three-quarters of a million people (joining the unemployment ranks) in February to, say, only a quarter of a million people in July, even though that's Armageddon in other times . . . that's progress. And everybody will start to forecast that there will be a zero job decline come early next year. And we'll start looking at GE at $9 a share or a Miami condo for $200,000. . . . You may decide there is a lot of value, and things could turn more quickly than anticipated.

2 comments:

Glynn Kalara said...

LOL! By then most of us will be thinking can I get a few more tomatoes out of my summer garden, not can I buy a condo in Miami. This guy hasn't a clue at how bad things are in this country.

Jim Sande said...

Read the article, i only cherry picked out the tiny good part because this whole thing is very depressing. Zandi is talking a decade before the DOW hits 12K, a decade. I need smelling salts to read this article.