Last August, Silver rated Trump’s chances of winning the Republican nomination at 2%, and he remained bearish on Trump’s candidacy throughout the fall. The mistake, he has since admitted, sprang from a blindness to the very data he has made a career reading so well. The polls showing Trump’s strength were right; the nagging contextual information that Silver admitted he allowed get in the way – historical data, “gut” feelings about the candidate – was, in Trump’s unique case, highly misleading.
Thursday, June 30, 2016
81%
Guardian UK: Hillary Clinton has 81% chance of defeating Trump, Nate Silver predicts - Famed analyst accurately predicted state outcomes that led to Obama win in 2012 election but failed to foresee Trump becoming the Republican nominee
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2 comments:
FAILED TO SEE tRUMP winning. Nate lost his MOJO with that failure. He's just another pundit blinded by his own arrogance. Once an outsider Nate now is the penultimate insider. tRump can win this fall.
He can, but still, I like seeing the numbers the way they are now. I like it a lot better than if they were reversed.
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