Next Friday is a big data day as the latest employment numbers are released and parsed. We all want to see that number continue to shrink and finally reverse to where we are adding jobs more than losing them. That is not going to happen anytime soon unfortunately.
All indicators point to a continued shrinking in the number of layoffs. Investors will be reacting to how much shrinking, they are looking for the good in the bad.
Any way you cut it, the unemployment rate is officially close to 10%. We suspect the actual numbers are greater when one considers those who are self employed and without work and those who have fallen off the radar.
The saga also includes the ongoing question about the sustainability of the several month long rally in equities. We've had three days in a row of losses. Final numbers on the second quarter GDP also come out next week, but the real meaty number will be the first round of results on the third quarter. That is just around the corner and most expect to see that the GDP is growing, officially ending the recession.
Reuters: Stocks' rally to be tested by jobs data
...9.7 percent U.S. unemployment rate is a major concern for investors because of the impact on the economy and, in particular, consumer spending.
...an increase in overtime hours should also be watched as that could suggest a positive trend.
Final second-quarter GDP data also is on tap for Wednesday...
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