One thing to remember about economic articles that make bold predictions, is to recall that journalists have screwed up with their recession predictions at every single point.
I remember back in January of 2008 when economic journalists were writing that the recovery would occur in the Summer of 2008! Hardly, that's when things were just getting slightly toasty. Someone with the anal attention and desire required, could write a book about how economic journalists screwed up at every point.
The consensus coalesces around a few themes. The recovery will be "L" shaped - the thing hits bottom and drags along the rocks for another year or more. The recovery will be jobless. Millions will be unemployed. Residential housing market prices are slightly better, foreclosures are at a record pace, but next up is commercial real estate which is in big foreclosure trouble. This is why the REIT might be another big deal in the near future - buy low, hold, and sell or rent high. Lots of IPO REITs will come online soon.
Finally the market is doing better but all agree that it is fragile. The bones have not calcified with the DOW at 9,000. Its all wobblier than a new born giraffe. The whole kit and kaboodle could get real nasty real fast with a week of distressed news and realistically that bad news is out there.
Miami Herald: Dow closing at 9,000 is a sign economic panic has subsided
It all amounts to an economy that experts see as both more predictable and much more poised for a rebound. In fact, some economists say the national recession may already be over. If not, it will probably be over by the winter -- when most analysts predict the economy will start growing again.
...the stock market could dive in the face of either a minor spook or a major shift in good earnings news turning bad. Even a small shift in perceptions could send Wall Street heading for the exits again.
2 comments:
A "jobless recovery" is an oxymoron.
What "jobless recovery" means is - the poor working and impoverished classes grow by millions of people. This is acceptable to the financial managers of the country. The wealth that these new poor working and impoverished people once enjoyed has now been shifted into the hands of the elite wealthy. These unfortunate billionaires are in a race to be the world's first trillionaire and this is a very stressful race filled with corporate takeovers, layoffs, million dollar bonuses, hedge funds, political manipulations, and such.
The financial managers have agreed that the ranks of the working poor can grow by millions. They have agreed that there is enough remaining capital floating around in America's better off suburbs and cities to keep the system working.
If anybody else can offer a better definition I'm all ears.
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