Saturday, January 25, 2014

Global Warming - Negative Impact On The Economy - Integrated Assessment Models

Guardian UK: More global warming will be worse for the economy, says the Copenhagen Consensus Center - A report from the think tank is consistent with previous research showing that more warming will cost the economy
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9 comments:

Glynn Kalara said...

If instead of literally wasting trillions on drilling, fracking, mining for fossil fuels and and there by shooting ourselves in the head at the same time, we invested in renewable s and started a crash program to develop better ways to remove and sequester any sources of carbon pollution as we go the economy wouldn't take quite so bad a hit. The trouble is the primary driver of both our economy and energy production are doing us in at every level.

10:14 AM
Jim Sande said...

People tend to not react until something becomes so obviously bad that it necessitates action. I think most ordinary people are at this point with respect to global warming. They want action. However the powers that be who run the economy with oil as a central piece are not about to replace oil in the economic formula. I'm sure there are very very smart people working for big oil and coal who understand the global warming dynamics that the world faces. Simultaneously they have very very smart people who know how to manipulate opinion with an unlimited media budget and this is where the corporate public face is being presented. One thing that is extraordinarily ironic in this complicated maze is that even well intentioned ordinary people who want serious action on global warming, these same people are also highly invested with retirement accounts and such in big oil and they also want those dividends and profits. I suspect most people in this situation are not even aware of how intimately connected all forms of commerce in our economy are connected to oil. This is why nothing is going to happen except on the margins where some project goes up in some country that attracts a lot of attention and shows potential but doesn't really even put a small dent in the greater scheme of things. I think right now the only type of change or action we see is going to come from the margins of the economy all with the great hope that somehow over time this will force more and more momentum towards the center - Wall Street, the government, international corporations etc - and overtake the center.

10:42 AM
Glynn Kalara said...

Great analysis Jim. Yes, its very complicated. However, ultimately WE created the problem.Its essentially man-made and it can be fixed by the right actions going forward. MAYBE. Here's the BIG caveat. We might have already so damaged or altered the natural systems that we've unwittingly kicked the whole thing into a set of reinforcing positive feedback loops like the Arctic warming and the loss of the sea ice in summer that causes more Arctic warming and more ice loss that then alters the global wind system which so on and so forth , you get the picture. Methane releases are also a huge potentially game changing positive feedback in the system and that also is being affected by a warming Arctic etc. So, if as some in the scientific community are saying our attempts at fixing all this are already way too little and way too late then all of these discussions are somewhat academic aren't they. The sad truth is ignorance of NATURAL law has its consequences and Mother Nature turns a blind eye to those that violate her rules.

11:17 AM
Jim Sande said...

Yes, if you listen to the info from some top universities and outfits like 350, the tipping point has been reached and exceeded. We are learning the details as we go and there are new revelations each day. The proverbial train has left the station and we don't know the exact destination or place of arrival except that the scenery is drastically changing along the way. I had an idea for an analogy for the denier cult. The guy who points to a cold winter day as proof that there is no global warming is like someone who happens to walk out onto a thruway at the precise moment when no car is around and then declares that this is a perfectly safe place for him to lay down and take a nap.

3:55 PM
Glynn Kalara said...

I like your analogy. Yes, 350 as does other Climate centric groups believes the transition to a "new" climate regime planet wide is happening as we chat. Part of the problem is as we go forward fewer and fewer people will remember what the climate was prior to the change and that these folks will mistakenly believe the Arctic for instance was always Ice free wasn't it? Or Polar Bears what are they didn't they die off millions of yrs ago etc.

4:04 PM
Glynn Kalara said...

I like your analogy. Yes, 350 as does other Climate centric groups believes the transition to a "new" climate regime planet wide is happening as we chat. Part of the problem is as we go forward fewer and fewer people will remember what the climate was prior to the change and that these folks will mistakenly believe the Arctic for instance was always Ice free wasn't it? Or Polar Bears what are they didn't they die off millions of yrs ago etc.

4:04 PM
Anonymous said...

This report is such rubbish. I saw no explanation of how global warming has had a net benefit, nor how it will have a net hindrance on the global economy in the future. It just will.

This report is little more than partisan politics as far as I can see.

klem

8:02 AM
Glynn Kalara said...

Deny away all you want. It won't make a bit of difference. Natural law has nothing to do with politics. Nature operates fine totally without humans. On the other hand we are part of the natural order and if we are the causative agent to filling the atmosphere with CO2 then chemistry and physics does the rest. As for how that will effect the human economy, its to be seen and I agree is harder to put an exact figure on. Much will depend on just how much we can mitigate the nasty negative effects of a rapidly warming environment and its various feed backs. I think there is a general consensus among scientists it will make things harder and be more of a drag on the economy then a stimulating factor. It doesn't have to be that way. However, if we want to stay on our present course of using massive amounts of fossil fuel most scientist and economist agree its going to be challenging to say the least.

9:29 AM
Jim Sande said...

This article points out how increasing severe weather events are pressuring the economy of the Philippines -
Typhoon Haiyan: what really alarms Filipinos is the rich world ignoring climate change

10:36 AM

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