I'm sorry to say, but I am revising my prediction, or is it a wish, that the DOW remains in the 8000s for the duration of the recession or until there is some economic growth.
The economy is failing and it will continue to fail probably for quite some time.
At present I am thinking there will not be a dramatic recovery. After the major carnage, after the major bombs of layoffs, foreclosures, negative growth, and deflation have hit, sometime in the distant future, there will be peace. There will not be major prosperity. We will simply stop seeing huge volumes of bad data.
We will slowly begin rebuilding and the landscape will be different. Conservatives will attempt to rebuild the old deregulated ponzi credit scheme landscape. The political battle to do this is already taking place and the entrenchments are shaping up.
Right now Obama needs to be firm and move us into a different economic territory. The Reagan-Clinton-Bush pee down economy is finished.
This recession will prove to be utterly tenacious. Republicans will point to the slowness of the "recovery" in order to gain political points in an attempt to regain power.
Bush has hidden the enormity of the economic disaster. People will slowly catch up in understanding the severity of the recession.
It will be a race to see how Obama's logical economic moves will carry in the face of outspoken political criticism and hatred - we already have Limbaugh calling for a failed Obama administration.
Unfortunately, if Republicans regain power, they will only add to the misery. The wealthy will once again start regathering all the money and wealth while the poor and middle classes will sink into massive debt and devaluation, much more so than what we are seeing now.
Reuters: Stock futures creep up; eyes on earnings
Stock index futures pointed to a flat to slightly higher open on Wall Street on Monday, as investors braced for monthly housing data and a flurry of corporate results.